Cardinals start a 1 city, 3 game trip with a 6-1 victory
Top-line Results
Backed by a persistent offense that scored in 4 different innings, Andre Pallante overwhelmed the Twins line-up, ultimately setting down 13 in a row to close out 7 innings pitched. Willson Contreras had 3 hits, Masyn Winn and Lars Nootbar both had two RBI. Back to .500. Turns out, the season is not over, at least not yet.
Pre-Game Notes
- The Cardinals start the day 63-64. Using the new math, my strategy leads me to conclude they have 35 games left. 5 games back of Atlanta. A favorable September schedule looms, heavy on home games, heavy on .500 or below teams.
- But first, there is a pesky set of 13 games vs. Twins, Yankees, Padres, and Brewers.
- And, of course, the minor detail that they are not just behind Atlanta, but also the Mets and Giants, too.
- All told, they are on the fringe of the wild card chase. That beats last year by a wide margin. Should be an entertaining run to the finish, even if the odds suggest they are more likely to show than place.
Line-up (and roster) manipulations
- Since I last recapped, the roster shuffled a bit. Gorman and Walker out, Fermin and Baker in.
- Matz looms. I anticipate he will be one of the Sep 1 call-ups. I believe he is slated to start for Memphis on 8/27, then be ready to join MLB team on 9/1 or 9/2.
- Pallante starts for the Cardinals. Festa for the Twins.
- Pallante’s K:BB ratio is slowly improving. Now stands at 2:1. Not great but improved. The recent trend line is going in the right direction, too. The walk side of that ratio is better than league average (7.9), but the K rate (17.9) stands at 14th percentile.
- Festa is a rookie with 7 games under his belt. Good velo (66th percentile at 95 mpg avg) with excellent extension, so that velo plays better. Strong K rate at 27.7%, good walk rate at 6.9%. Top 100 prospect. The stats/metrics for him look a bit like how I’d expect our own Tink Hence to look like as he approaches the MLB level. Even his innings pitched history is similar (peak of 103 IP). Good comp?
- I think this is the new standard lineup against righties. Carpenter at DH. Contreras at C. Goldy drops to 7 hole. Burly in left.
- Twins have a couple of .900+ OPS hitters in the core of their lineup. Boy, wouldn’t that be nice? I know they will have 6 lefty swingers. They don’t read about Pallante’s reverse platoon splits?
- I anticipate that Romero, Kittredge and Helsley will be down today, after pitching last two games and facing 13 more games in a row without a day off. They may have to count on Liberatore, Fernandez and Armstrong to carry the high leverage load tonight.
The Game
T1 – Winn lines out (101 mph). Burly and Contreras K.
B1 – After noting Neil’s good walk rate, he responds by walking the lead-off hitter. A K, single and GIDP round out the inning.
T2 – Donovan flies out F7. Arenado same. Nootbar K. Most of his advanced metrics say he is a better hitter than his counting stats. Unfortunately, one stat does not that sticks out. HIs average launch angle is very low. Jordan Walker territory.
B2 – Jeffers with a lead off-single. F9 follows. Noting a very small strike zone tonight. Seems consistent so far, but on the tiny side of things for both P. Another single. Ground balls tonight, finding the open spots on the infield. Pitch placement vis-a-vis fielder placement an issue there as Kepler hit it where it was pitched, which is where the defense was not. Another walk loads the bases. Infield hit RBI (68 mph dribbler). 5-2 force-out at home. Challenged by Twins. Ruling confirmed. Followed by a K to salvage the inning. Twins up 1-0.
T3 – Goldy K’s. The Count of Three-and-two works a walk. Scott taps into force 1-6. SB by Scott. Winn RBI single. A lil bit of small ball there pays off. Burly 3u ends the inning. Game tied 1-1.
B3 – Pallante’s command has been spotty. No hard-hit balls, though. Only one ball hit harder than 77 mph so far. 6-3 and F9 to start things. Jeffers with another single. 4-3 ends the inning. Pallante at 51 pitches.
T4 – Contreras singles to left. Contreras tries to push into a double and they miss the tag on a throw that arrived before he did but the Twins have no challenge remaining. Announcers noted the Twins didn’t move with much urgency. A poor choice that worked out. Donovan walks. Festa at 63 pitches may be teetering a bit. Arenado K’s. Double steal puts runners at second and third. Contreras brought his wheels tonight! Noot with 2-RBI double. Hey, I saw a hit with RISP! Goldy pops out F8. Festa out after 75 pitches. Hmm…they didn’t want him facing Carp. Thielbar in, a lefty. Oli responds by pinch-hitting Baker. I don’t care for this move. Most of the gain you get from the more favorable right-lefty matchup you lose due to the pinch-hitting penalty. Besides, they will pitch around him. Baker walks on four pitches. That was four more warm-up pitches for Thielbar is all it was. They’d rather face Scott. All Oli accomplished there was to burn a pinch-hitter, losing Carp for the rest of the game. Scott K’s. Cards now up 3-1.
B4 – Pallante back out, now with a 2-run lead. Starts the inning with two K’s, then a soft liner to Donovan makes a quick inning.
T5 – Winn leads off with a single. Burly F8 and Contreras GIDP.
B5 – Pallante gets a first pitch ground out, 4-3. Then a K. He is finding his rhythm. That is six in a row retired. Pop out to Winn ends the inning. Pallante at a manageable 77 pitches after five IP. Cards still up 3-1.
T6 – Alcala in. He can bring it. Donovan greets him with a solo HR. Arenado 6-3. Nootbar, wanting to make up ground on his Launch Angle stats, pops out. Goldy walks. Baker up against the righty. Goldy steals second. 4th steal of the night. Cards taking a page from their opponents. Baker walks again. Scott pops out. Cards now up 4-1.
B6 – Pallante (again) gets a first pitch ground out, 4-3. Then 5-3. Then 3u. Ten batters in a row retired. Nice work! Pallante at 87 pitches, so would expect him back out for the 7th. Any outs he gets now is bonus for the rest of the series as it relieves pressure on the bullpen.
T7 – Richards in for the Twins. Their fourth pitcher of the evening. Winn grounds out. Burly walks. Contreras with a bloop hit makes it first and third. Pham in to pinch-run for Burly. An early defensive replacement? I find myself wondering how much defensive improvement Pham over Burly is, but he is a better runner at any rate. Contreras advances to 2nd on a wild pitch. Man, he has been all over the bases tonight. Donovan pops out and Pham gets himself picked off third as his bluff to the plate was a bit overplayed and the Twins picked his pocket. So much for that better runner assessment. I had hardly finished keyboarding that sentence.
B7 – Pallante starts the inning 3u. Then a 4-3. Then a F9. Thirteen in a row retired. Wow! Even more intriguing, that fly out was the first ball of any kind that reached beyond the infield since a third inning single. That was like an hour and half ago. That will not hurt his elite GB rate. I’m glad the outfielders are still awake. Pallante at 99 pitches is likely done. A tip of the cap to him. 1 R, 5 K, 2 BB in seven very impressive innings. On a night the bullpen needed those innings. Cards still up 4-1.
T8 – Richards back out. Arenado with a lead-off single. Noot advances Arenado to third with a hit. Goldy K’s. Baker walks for the third time. He must be finding some comfort and confidence. He let it rip on a 3-0 count, just missing a middle-middle FB. Then he still works the walk. Scott with a bases loaded walk for an RBI. That is like the fourth bases loaded walk in the last 3 games for the Cardinals offense. Winn with a SacFly drives in another runner. A wild pitch puts runners at second and third. Pham grounds out to end the threat. Cards now up 6-1.
B8 – King in for Pallante. Those two tack-on runs really help. First pitch ground out again. 5-3. Then 4-3. Two pitches, two outs. Another 5-3 ends the inning.
T9 – Okert in for Richards. He wasn’t very good. Contreras opens with a single. Donvan walks. ninth walk of the line-up given up by the Twins. Noot advances them to second and third with a 1-3 ground out. Goldy grounds out.
B9 – Fernandez in for King, to close things out. Of course, the obligatory walk to the first guy he faces breaks the streak of 16 straight outs by Cardinal’s pitchers. Follows up with a backwards K after going 3-1 on Farmer. Santa pops out after going 3-1. Fernandez not sharp but getting by on good stuff. His fastball command is terrible tonight. Some pitches he is trying to guide it in instead of letting it just come out. He loses 2-3 ticks off his velo when he does that. Finally, an F9 to the game. Cards win 6-1.
Post-game Notes (and random musings)
- At some point, won’t they want to see Riley O’Brien at the MLB level?
- I’m not one of those that thinks the Cardinals have ruined Jordan Walker. That said, he seems to have lost (misplaced?) his ability to really impact the baseball with a bat. Similar to Carlson. Like both were better hitters when they came up than they are now. Puzzling.
- I’ve been watching the Mariner’s meltdown with some interest (I live in the Northwest). I’m not one for instant analysis or hot takes (often wrong, never in doubt), so I’ll skip that. I do harken back to almost a year ago this time, when the Mariner’s GM spoke the quiet part out loud. Jerry Dipoto apologizes, clarifies end-of-season comments (mlb.com). He (inarticulately) articulated why it doesn’t pay to try and build a juggernaut team, and where the target of being consistently good is where the real pay-off is, especially for mid-market teams. It might give some perspective to Cardinal’s fans and help them understand how what seems like tired and worn-out front-office strategies might be more mainstream than imagined. Food for thought.
- More on the Mariners (and parallels to the Cardinals). I really, really like the M’s rotation. One to drool over. That said, they’ve pretty much established that having a “built for October” rotation isn’t all that and a box of cookies. Turns out Mo’s “Pitching, pitching, pitching” response last year was only part of the equation.