Nailed it.
Baseball is a game of adjustments. Well, most sports are, really. Tiny tweaks in timing can turn failure into success—a running back hitting the gap at just the right moment to break free, a shooting guard adjusting his shot’s trajectory for a swish instead of a rim roll, a hockey goalie perfectly timing a butterfly slide to stonewall a breakaway.
Call me a nerd—you wouldn’t be the first—but breaking sports down into these micro-movements is endlessly fascinating. The game within the game, as they say. Baseball might be the easiest sport to quantify these adjustments. It’s tough to measure a shooter’s technique change that bumps their three-point percentage from 35% to 40%, but I can look at Matthew Liberatore’s changeup usage compared to previous seasons and tell you exactly what’s different.
Which, luckily, is what I’m here to do!
Liberatore has been on the verge of a breakout season, but unfortunately, he left Thursday’s start early after a dip in velocity, reportedly due to arm fatigue. It doesn’t sound too serious, but it’s frustrating—just as he was putting everything together, a setback interrupts his momentum.
Of course, the scare really brought to mind just how impressive this season has been for Liberatore. That adage “you don’t know what you got ‘til it is gone” proving true once again. In the spirit of appreciation and gratitude, now feels like a perfect time to break down exactly how this breakout season is taking shape. Jake wrote about how he stacks up against the league last week, and earlier this week, Gabe compared his evolution to Jennifer Lawrence’s breakout role in Winter’s Bone. So now, let’s take a look at what he’s doing differently—and more importantly, how he’s doing it.
What Liberatore isn’t doing
Before diving into the changes, let’s examine what hasn’t happened. Liberatore is currently fifth in MLB in K/BB ratio (5.8), but he’s not achieving that through overwhelming strikeout numbers. Instead, his dominance comes from an elite ability to limit walks.
In 61.1 innings pitched, Liberatore has issued just 1.32 BB/9, translating to a 3.6% walk rate, third-best in the league behind Tarik Skubal (2.2%) and Zack Littell (3.4%).
Another key improvement? He’s not giving up homers. His 0.79 HR/9 ranks 24th in MLB, and hitters are pulling the ball in the air just 14.2% of the time—a notable drop from last season’s 17.1%.
Now, let’s break down what is fueling this evolution.
1. Sharpened Fastball Command & Cutter Adjustment
Liberatore’s fastball has never been overpowering, but this year, he’s using it with surgical precision. Sitting at 94.4 mph, his four-seamer is finding the corners consistently, setting up everything else in his arsenal. You can see it very clearly in the Illustrator from Baseball Savant:
Even more interesting? Every pitch looks like every other pitch he throws. His cutter usage has jumped to 14%, giving hitters fewer visual cues to differentiate between his pitches. This has allowed him to lean more heavily on his changeup—which brings us to the next point.
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2. Increased Changeup Usage
Liberatore has nearly tripled his changeup usage, jumping from 5% in 2024 to 13% in 2025. While it’s still not his go-to pitch like his slider, it’s played a crucial role in keeping right-handed hitters off balance.
His changeup mirrors his slider’s arm slot and location, making it harder for hitters to recognize what’s coming. The deception is working—hitters are expecting a breaking pitch, but instead, they’re seeing an off-speed offering, leading to weaker contact and poor timing.
3. Pitch Selection
Liberatore’s approach with two strikes has changed dramatically. Last year, it was curveball or slider in nearly every two-strike scenario.
Now? While the slider is still the primary weapon, his four-seam fastball has become a legitimate strikeout option, generating a 33.3% whiff rate with two strikes. Hitters are sitting on breaking balls, only to be frozen by 94 mph heat on the edges.
This sequencing shift has helped increase his opponents’ chase rate by nearly 7%, proving he’s expanding the zone strategically—without sacrificing control.
4. Whiffs Out of the Zone
Liberatore has been exceptional at getting hitters to chase this season. His chase rate sits at 34.2%, ranking in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers. He’s consistently fooling batters into swinging at pitches outside the strike zone—a huge factor behind his elite walk rate.
5. High-Leverage Execution
This is where things really come together. In previous seasons, Liberatore leaned heavily on his fastball in big moments, throwing it 31% of the time when behind in the count.
Now? His slider is just as viable in these situations, leading to more weak contact and whiffs. Hitters aren’t tracking his pitches well, and even when they make contact, it’s soft and inefficient.
Hitters aren’t seeing the ball well, they’re whiffing just outside the strike zone, they cannot seem to guess what pitch is coming, and when they do make contact, it’s stayed in the ballpark. His ground-ball rate has climbed, and his strikeouts remain efficient because he isn’t wasting pitches. Liberatore is becoming a steady mid-rotation arm the Cardinals can rely on, if not one of their top starters. His ability to balance command, deception, and sequencing makes him one of the most interesting pitchers to watch as the season unfolds.
But, as always, what do you think? Are we witnessing a real breakthrough, or is this just a well-executed hot streak? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
Happy Sunday!