It’s a short list
The MLB Draft is tomorrow. The Cardinals first pick is in the top 5 which is extremely rare. How rare? Well, as part of our draft coverage, I’ll show you exactly how rare. I’m going to cover every top 5 pick in the Cardinals history and it’s not going to be a long post. It’s actually been so long that when you are inevitably underwhelmed by the players, it won’t actually mean anything because it’s been that long.
It’s happened three times. Three total times. To my total shock, it never happened in the 70s. As bad of a reputation as that decade gets, they never had a top 5 pick. That is astounding to me. They did have two #6 picks, one of which was used on Andy Van Slyke. No, I think if when you draft is any indication, the 90s is the worst decade of baseball of most people who have followed the Cardinals. Unless you were born after the 2000s, in which case get off my lawn.
Of course, the MLB draft has only existed since 1966. And it was very different as there was not one, but multiple types of draft. There was the MLB Draft as we know it, set in June. There was a January draft-Secondary Phase and a June-draft secondary phase. I don’t understand it either, but they obviously simplified it over the years because it was absolute nonsense.
To get to the point of the post, the three top 5 picks the Cardinals had in the 1990s were Braden Looper, JD Drew, and Dmitri Young. Combined, they spent 39 years in the major leagues so in that sense, it’s actually not underwhelming at all. If we draft someone who spends 13 years in the major leagues, it was a good pick. No question.
Of course, will anybody be happy if the Cardinals next pick becomes Braden Looper, frequent reliever and improbable starter at the end? Fun fact: Looper is and will remain the highest ever draft pick the Cardinals have had ever had. I suppose with the draft lottery, I no longer have to root for that to be true, though I’d prefer not to be in the lottery at all cause the season probably went well.
Looper career stats: 670 G, 97 GS, 4.15 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 7.2 bWAR, 7 fWAR
HOWEVER, I must point that Looper was traded as part of a package that included Armando Almanza and Pablo Ozuna to acquire Edgar Renteria. So a top 5 pick can do more for you than just perform for your team. Looper was a top 25 prospect by Baseball America and the Cardinals used that to acquire their starting SS for the next six seasons. Now THAT is a great outcome.
Moving on to the next would be disappointing pick, we have Dmitri Young. Young somehow compiled 12.5 career fWAR with exactly one above average season. That’s honestly hard to do. His sweet spot was between 1 and 2 fWAR and he was for the most part starting every game. So he was below average starter in the truest sense of the word, though not an outright bad player for most of his run. That said, even he has his positives. We’d be happy with a career 112 wRC+ from this pick. Young gave away most of his value by not providing any defensive or baserunning value, but he was clearly a good hitter.
He too was traded though before he got a real chance. His was an awful trade that didn’t age as bad as it probably should have because Young wasn’t that good and the Cardinals had just acquired a little known player by the name of Mark McGwire. Seen from a modern context, this trade is mystifying. Young too was a huge prospect, although he had an underwhelming rookie season. So they traded him for a broken reliever by the name of Jeff Brantley. Brantley was horrendous with the Cardinals in his one season. Looked at from every angle, this was not a good outcome. Hang your hat on the 112 wRC+ though.
Dmitri Young – 1,364 G, 5,253 PAs, .292/.351/.475, 112 wRC+, 12.5 fWAR
Lastly, the unambiguous best pick, a great outcome and… occasional punching bag JD Drew was the final top 5 pick. There is no comparable player to Drew in the draft because well, he was probably a number one pick without all the baggage that came with him. He didn’t sign with the Phillies the year prior despite being drafted 2nd overall and him and Scott Boras tried to make it to where he would become an actual free agent and go to the highest bidder. Didn’t work obviously. Cardinals benefited.
Again, I know there were some Drew haters because he didn’t always have a smile and got hurt all the time, but getting a JD Drew is close to the best case scenario for a top 5 pick. Drew was a great, underrated player vindicated by advanced stats who was then later traded for a franchise icon (Adam Wainwright), plus a fifth starter (Jason Marquis) for a few years plus a decent LOOGY (Ray King). He also made the majors the very next year and was a regular starter the year after that. So the JD Drew outcome means we’re getting a starting outfielder in 2027. Not going to happen, but one can dream.
JD Drew – 1,556 G, 6,153 PAs, .278/.384/.489, 128 wRC+, 46 fWAR