On September 1, the Cardinals activated OF Victor Scott II from the IL and promoted RHP Chris Roycroft from Memphis as they expanded their active roster from 26 to 28 players. By rule, this expansion must be 1 pitcher and 1 position player.
There really isn’t much to read into this. Roycroft brings additional depth to a bullpen that has been taxed by multiple abbreviated starts. For him, it is a chance to redeem a lost opportunity he was given at the season start, where management anticipated he would better establish himself as an MLB pitcher. He did not. Scott is a player returning from injury and the date of his return was propitious in that his activation on Sep 1 avoided another transaction, such as demoting someone else. Very convenient.
Underneath all the recent transactions we can discern some beginnings of direction and begin to anticipate future moves which will be further tells. We can look back a little bit at recent transactions and get some clue about how the team views other prospects. Crooks and Prieto got 40-man spots and promotions to MLB due to injury. Wetherholt did not, much to some fans’ chagrin. Sometimes opportunity comes unexpectedly. This is not to say Prieto is rated better than Wetherholt. It means they don’t see value in promoting JJ and burning a 40-man spot on a player who doesn’t need one. So, I’d say their early planning for the off-season included Prieto and Crooks being protected. They can still drop either, but they tend to be quite thoughtful about putting guys on the 40-man.
Notice the Church promotion (and lack of a demotion when Scott came off the IL). I think this tells us pretty definitively that Church has passed Siani on the depth chart. Siani is a 26-year-old outfielder still has 2 options left and is pre-arb, but his hold on a 40-man spot might be tenuous as new management looks to re-balance this roster. Unfortunately for Siani, that hold might be defined by things beyond his control, such as how well Church grades out through September. Expect to see Church in a variety of roles this month – defensive replacement, pinch runner, pinch hitter, spot starter, etc. as the Cardinals see how he might fit in next year’s roster as a fifth outfielder.
Don’t make too much of the Roycroft promotion. If anything, it is an acknowledgement that there is not a single pitching prospect in Memphis the Cardinals wish to see come out of an MLB bullpen. Fernandez, O’Brien, Granillo, Svanson, Graceffo are already here. While the Memphis season continues, there may be more churn to protect arms but this is about it.
Similar to Prieto/Wetherholt, we shouldn’t take this as a sign they rate Roycroft higher than Mathews, who is probably the only other prospect at Memphis expected to meaningfully contribute at the MLB level. I think we can read that the Cardinals view of Mathews and the MLB roster itself is confirmed as neither will be ready to compete at the MLB level next spring. Of course, Mathews, much like Wetherholt, could force himself on the roster with a great spring (and perhaps a lack of competition), but they don’t see that as likely enough to give him a 40-man spot now and let him get a taste of MLB competition this September. So, keeping him off the 40-man has more value than getting him a taste of MLB hitters.
For future events, each August, Major League clubs determine the players who will go to the Arizona Fall League (AFL). Each Major League Baseball team sends seven top prospects to the Arizona Fall League. I don’t think this league is quite the “finishing school” it used to be (maybe more for hitters?), but they still point out that almost half of the 2025 MLB All-Stars were AFL graduates. Who will the Cardinals send? I wonder about Wetherholt, although the absence of premium pitching might make this not a super helpful assignment for him. Mathews? Perhaps, although innings management may be the greater concern, this league tends to test pitchers and he may or may not be ready for that (or they may think he is not).
For reference, last year’s assignees were: Mautz, Henderson, Church, Bernal, Baker, Cornwell, Saggese and Svanson. At the time, some of those were “huh?”. Six of those eight progressed very well this year and three (Church, Saggese, Svanson) made the MLB roster. Whoever they assign this year is likely to be on their list of guys they expect to really advance. Possibilities? They tend not to send guys a second time (maybe there is a rule on that?). So, possibilities would seem to include Josh or Jesus Baez, Zach Levenson, Pete Hansen. Maybe Tink Hence if he can use the innings and is healthy. Chen-Wei Lin, maybe? Three dark-horse candidates…Austin Love, Bryan Torres, Michael Watson. Of course, they always come up with a surprise, too. These assignments give us insight into how the Cardinals view the upside of some of their prospects. And may help them finalize their 40-man appointments forthcoming in November (a mere 2 months from now).
Personally, I am curious how the Cardinals begin to shape their roster depth, primarily with the Memphis roster. Aside from injured guys that may come back (Rom, Robberse, Roby), one can imagine that only a few current Memphis pitchers will carry over (Hales, Rajcic, Mathews). We will learn a lot about how the Cardinals evaluate the internal pitching depth and how they intend to shape their pitching moving forward as they look to acquire the depth pieces they need. Will they sign a bunch of AAAA pitchers? Will they promote a slew of AA pitchers? Will they trade from the major league roster for pitching prospects? Or …. This will all come into better view as the off-season progresses.
The setting of the 40-man roster itself will be interesting. They are at 40 right now and will need one of these 40 spots if they wish to retain Z. Thompson, who will roll off the 60-day IL at seasons end. Veneziano seems like a candidate to move on and Mikolas will depart via Free Agency. Hampson, Siani, Koperniak and maybe even Fermin may be guys that aren’t super secure with their spot on the roster. It seems inevitable a catcher will depart before November. How deep they cut will be an insight into their evaluation of current talent and perhaps how they intend to re-shape this roster.
The off-season begins here.