As far as depth is concerned, pitching has to be the hardest to plan ahead long-term. There are a couple of reasons for this. The first is simply that injuries are commonplace. They can set back the timeline, they can derail a career. But even without injuries, you can’t be sure where a pitcher ends up. If you have a top 50 2B prospect in High A, you can be relatively sure they will play 2B at the major league level. They may not be good, but the team will give them a season or two to prove themselves.
Pitcher is different. If you have a top 50 pitching prospect in High A… they may never start a game at the MLB level. They may start a few games, but by the time they reach AAA, it’s obvious their future is in the bullpen. And these are the best prospects. Anybody outside of the top 100, this holds even more true. So I’m going to have to approach how we talk about starting pitching depth a little bit differently than the other positions.
So I created five categories for pitcher. One of them is starting pitcher and one of them is bullpen. The other three are meant to account for the fact that many starting pitching prospects go into the bullpen. I’ll leave you in suspense on what those are, but needless to say, it’s my opinion. There’s no way to avoid the fact that at some point, there’s a subjective nature to this. Most of you should agree with who I put in bullpen and starting pitcher, but there will definitely be disagreements about the middle three spots. And that’s fine. My opinion as I said.
Starting Pitcher
MLB
Sonny Gray (36)
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $40 million (2027 mutual option)
If that number looks high to you, it’s because I’m factoring in the buyout. It seems rather unlikely that Sonny Gray is opting out of 1 year, $30 million and it’s fantastic if he does, because it means he had a phenomenal 2026. So that number is accounting for his $35 million salary in 2026 and $5 million buyout. The Cardinals are also of course not guaranteed to buy him out, but that’s not a negative either. Any result that isn’t 1 year, $40 million means that Sonny Gray had a really great 2026.
Matthew Liberatore (2.144 years of service, 26)
Estimated Arbitration: $2 million
Eligible for Free Agency: 2030
Liberatore is pretty likely to qualify for Super Two. Last year’s cutoff was 132 days and the year before it was 118 days. Super Two salaries are fairly low though and I don’t really think Liberatore has a whole lot of history that suggests he will buck that trend. Again, my eligible for free agency date is the first year they will not be a Cardinal, not their last year as a Cardinal. If Liberatore reaches free agency as a Cardinal, and then signs a free agent deal, 2030 will be the first year of that deal.
Michael McGreevy (0.079 years of service time, 25)
Arbitration eligible: 2029
Eligible for free agency: 2032
One side effect of the Cardinals keeping McGreevy in AAA for the first half of the season is that the Cardinals essentially gain an extra year of league minimum team control. By the end of this year, the Cardinals have effectively gotten 21 starts out of McGreevy in less than half a year by MLB service time for his MLB career. Here’s an idea that just popped into my head for the next CBA: any MLB start should come with a guarantee of 5 days of service time. Before he was up for good, the Cardinals got 4 “starts” (one relief appearance that went 5.2 innings) and he received 9 days of service time. That is ludicrous.
Quinn Mathews (25)
ETA: 2026
While I personally think it would be smart to go into 2026 with Mathews as the 6th starter, I also have the opinion that a team should enter camp with six MLB starting pitchers. It is very unlikely Mathews will have to wait near as long to get MLB starts as McGreevy did, because starting pitching staffs are not typically as healthy as the Cardinals were.
Minors
Liam Doyle (22)
ETA: 2026
I don’t think I can get behind assuming Doyle needs no minor league starts, so he’s in this minor league section. But there’s a halfway decent chance he could debut next season. The fact that he’s already pitching in AA games, albeit in relief, makes me think the Cardinals will promote him quickly.
Probably a Starter
MLB
Andre Pallante (3.145 years of service time, 27)
Estimated arbitration: $4 million
Eligible for free agency: 2029
It’s not really a good sign that I created three categories specifically designed for minor league pitchers and have an MLB pitcher here. Especially one with 59 career starts. I think, and I’ll probably have another post on this in the offseason, that given the state of the pitching staff in 2026, it makes sense to keep running Pallante out there. It’s not ideal, but it’s hard for me to ignore his 4.12 xFIP and not think the 2024 version of him is still in there. Next year would absolutely be my last chance though.
Minors
Tekoah Roby (24)
ETA: 2027
I’m showing my bias here, but I’m fully on board the Roby train. I think he belongs on the probably a starter train. He did get hurt at a bad time, but he’ll still just be 25 entering 2027 and while I don’t think I’m penciling him into the rotation, he might get first dibs when someone gets hurt.
Brycen Mautz (24)
ETA: 2026
Mautz, you are in a good place. You are about to get put on the 40 man roster, most of your competition is hurt and you’re maybe two months of good pitching away from the Cardinals wanting to promote you in the case of an injury or a doubleheader next season. I was going to say 2027, just because I do feel like some things have to go right, but honestly not a lot has to happen for him to start games at the MLB level next season. Simply being on the 40 man is going to remove a lot of potential obstacles.
Ixan Henderson (24)
ETA: 2027
Henderson is another pitcher who could debut next season – he won’t be on the 40 man, but he’ll need to be added at the end of the season. This might actually be a little optimistic to put him in this section – as you’ll see by all the names that won’t be in this section – just because he isn’t really that kind of prospect. Even now after a great season, I don’t think most sites rank him particularly high on the team lists? He was 13th on Fangraphs, which happened in the middle of this season and anybody below 10 means the author thinks their expected outcome is bullpen. One of the benefits of having a great minor league season is I am optimistic about you.
Probably Bullpen, Still Starting
Minors
Tink Hence (23)
ETA: 2027
As someone who placed Tink Hence #1 on my prospect post, this saddens me, but it is difficult to argue at this point that he’s a starting pitcher. I haven’t given up hope and I certainly am not moving him to the bullpen yet, but this was not a good year to believe in him as a starting pitcher.
Cooper Hjerpe (25)
ETA: 2026
That ETA is based on his Tommy John surgery going reasonably well – he got it in April, which leaves him some cushion to play in the 2nd half. It is also based, sadly, on him moving to the bullpen. There will be innings concerns for one thing. And I have a public prediction that he will never start an MLB game, which I hope to be wrong about, but I would actually be surprised if he starts an MLB game next season even if everything goes perfectly.
Max Rajcic (24)
ETA: 2026
It’s interesting how many different versions of “we call this a starting pitching prospect but” there are. There are those who you know will be dominant in the bullpen, but you have to see if they can start. And then there are pitchers like Rajcic and the next guy. They have the pitches to be a starter, but maybe not the stuff. And their stuff may not play up in the bullpen. Basically swingman types.
Sem Robberse (24)
ETA: 2027
Robberse’s problem is actually his fastball, he has plenty of breaking pitches, so he might actually be a good member of the bullpen. I want Rajcic to be good and as a starter because it’s harder to imagine him as a good reliever. Easier to imagine a good reliever with Robberse. So maybe Robberse has a bit more than a swingman in his future, because of his breaking pitches.
Chen Wei-Lin (24)
ETA: 2027
Another instance where I think 2028 fits the spirit of his ETA more, but since he’ll be on the 40 man (assuming 2026 goes at all well), it’s just very easy to promote him. Lin’s placement here is not pessimism on his future so much as how much has to go right still for him to start MLB games. He is a true representative of “look most of these guys on average will end up in the bullpen.” Even if there’s no current reason to think they will move to the bullpen. I’m just playing the law of averages here.
Pete Hansen (25)
ETA: 2026
As someone who has not really been a Hansen believer, I am surprised his stats did not take a hit in AA at all and apparently Fangraphs likes him, so let’s hope he’s more than I assumed.
Hancel Rincon (24)
ETA: 2027
His 2nd half injury has kind of put him at a standstill. With just 9 career appearances at AA, I assume he’s repeating AA next season and kind of hard to imagine he can debut next season if that’s the case.
Braden Davis (23)
ETA: 2027
My rule of thumb for ETA is to pick the year they first might be added to the 40 man. While he’s not eligible until the end of 2027, if they have to be added anyway, the team is more likely to promote them. Plus he struck out 34% of hitters this season, he might advance quickly.
Mason Molina (22)
ETA: 2028
I’m not maintaining a consistency on why I have Davis at 2027 and Molina at 2028. I guess the year of age makes all the difference for me. Wouldn’t surprise me if he debuts in 2027 though.
Brian Holiday (23)
ETA: 2028
He has missed all season due to a pitching injury, and he’s certainly behind the eight ball, but he was seen as a top 20 prospect entering the season.
Darlin Saladin (23)
ETA: 2028
Kind of a disappointing season, but his numbers are not as bad as I thought they were. So he’s still worth mentioning.
Currently bullpen, may start
MLB
Kyle Leahy (1.140 years of service time, 29)
Arbitration Eligible: 2027
Eligible for free agency: 2031
You know I originally had just four sections, and I put Kyle Leahy in the previous section. Except obviously, he’s in the bullpen right now. Which I had originally ignored until I realized there were also minor leaguers who fit this section. Anyway, I’m sure Leahy will enter camp preparing to start and may even be a starter for all of spring training. I am skeptical he will actually start given there can’t be many starters with the history of Leahy who’ve actually been good at starting at 29.
Minors
Tanner Franklin
ETA: 2028
None other than one of the Cardinals top draft picks perfectly fits this section. It is widely assumed he will get a chance to start, because you don’t usually draft pure relievers in the 3rd round.
Nate Dohm
ETA: 2028
Okay technically he’s not in the bullpen right now. But the line gets kind of blurry, because Dohm average a little over 3 innings per appearance and a little over 2 as a Cardinal. So to the say the least, he is not pitching like a starting pitcher right now. I think the 2-3 inning starters are kind of glorified relievers right now, hence this placement.
Frank Ellisalt
ETA: 2028
Again, in a technical sense, he did start games for Peoria. But he threw under 10 innings in 4 appearances. That’s high for a reliever in the majors, it’s pretty normal in the minors. Even if you are on the mound first, if your actual innings reflect that of a reliever, you’re going here.
Jack Findlay
ETA: 2028
No such disclaimers necessary for Findlay, who truly was in the bullpen all year. I also wanted to point out that he got promoted to High A and was dominant there in 5 games. I’m not really sure what changed, but it’s notable.
Zack Showalter
ETA: 2028
I still believe. Well kind of. I at least believe that they will try him at starter if he ever manages to stay healthy.
Andrew Dutkanych IV
ETA: 2028
Some of these bullpen guys are genuine guesses, we can be pretty sure Dutkanych is moving to the rotation next season. And I say moving even though he made 9 starts this season. But he threw 17.2 IP. Slowly escalating innings as he recovered from Tommy John, but he essentially pitched like a reliever this year. 35.6 K% in Low A by the way.
Bullpen
MLB
JoJo Romero (5.045 years of service time, 29)
Estimated Arbitration: $3.5 million
Eligible for free agency: 2027
Yep, Romero has one more year of team control and then he’s a free agent. I don’t really have any idea of what his salary will be, but again looking at his history, I’m struggling to see a big jump. It was $2.25 million this year.
Riley O’Brien (1.121 years of service time, 31)
Arbitration Eligible: 2028
Eligible for free agency: 2031
There is a chance he is actually Super Two eligible after next season. My 121 days is first off an estimate, although certainly close. The MLB site lists when players get demoted and recalled, so I really can’t be that off. Secondly, the Super Two number changes year-to-year and 121 is very much in that area where it could go either way. If he entered 2025 with that, he would not be eligible for Super Two.
Matt Svanson (0.116 years of service, 27)
Arbitration Eligible: 2029
Eligible for free agency: 2032
Where O’Brien has no options and is on the brink of Super Two, Svanson will still have two and I think 116 is somewhat comfortably in the “probably not Super Two” region. He would basically need to not get sent down over the next two years – very good news – and also have the Super Two be exceptionally low that particular year.
Gordon Graceffo (0.089 years of service, 26)
Arbitration Eligible: 2029
Eligible for free agency: 2032
I’ve been fairly vocal that I consider Graceffo a reliever now (to the point where he wasn’t one of my top 20 prospects), so while one could certainly argue he should be in one of the starter sections and I suspect he will spend spring training training as a starting pitcher, I got to stay true to my personal opinion here.
Ryan Fernandez (1.078 years of service, 28)
Arbitration Eligible: 2028
Eligible for free agency: 2031
Fernandez is perhaps a good place to point out that the fringier MLB relievers will not make it to free agency most likely. And it’s not always pitching related. If you pitch roughly equivalent to a pitcher who is on the bullpen shuttle and you’re in years two or three of arbitration, you will probably be DFA’d. That will most likely be the case for Jorge Alcala and maybe John King.
Chris Roycroft (1.010 years of service time, 29)
Arbitration eligible: 2028
Eligible for free agency: 2031
I think the Cardinals will bring Roycroft back. He still has an option and he was pretty good last year. Maybe he can correct that and if he can’t, I think they have the 40 man room. If he at all sticks as a Cardinal, he will likely be at least Super Two eligible, but if he spends even a few weeks in the minors, that free agency number moves to 2032.
Andre Granillo (0.055 years of service time, 26)
Arbitration Eligible: 2029
Eligible for free agency: 2032
There’s a pretty good chance Granillo’s actual free agency date is a year later because he has two options and really only has to spend about half a year in the minors. He’ll be on the bullpen shuttle next season and most of the members of the bullpen shuttle spend a couple months in the minors.
Packy Naughton (2.003 years of service time, 30)
Arbitration Eligible: 2027
Eligible for free agency: 2031
YES, HE IS STILL HERE. Yeah this is a longshot, but I wanted to highlight him. Also since he’s only 3 days over 2 years, I moved his free agency back an additional year. Short of making the Opening Day roster and never getting sent down, feels like the Cardinals will get five years instead of four. You know if they wanted to keep him that long.
Zack Thompson (2.072 years of service time, 28)
Arbitration eligible: 2027
Eligible for free agency: 2030
If he’s still in the organization that is I suppose. At least he got an MLB salary this season.
Minors
Skyler Hales (24)
ETA: 2026
If you can believe it, he’s actually posted better AAA numbers as a Cardinal than when he was with the Rangers. His walk rate is certainly way better.
Luis Gastelum (24)
ETA: 2026
Yeah if I had to guess, this guy is a bullpen shuttle guy next year at some point. He struck out 35.4% of hitters in AA. He will be Rule 5 eligible in December of 2026.
Austin Love (27)
ETA: 2026
There is an outside chance he is protected on the 40 man. There is also an outside chance he is selected in the Rule 5. I am skeptical of both, but he had a relatively promising year in Springfield after missing two seasons.
Michael Watson (24)
ETA: 2026
Here’s a fun guy. The lefty was signed from an independent league in July of last season. He advanced from Low A to AA in less than a year and is currently striking out 30.5% of hitters in AA.
And that’s a good place to stop. I actually listed more minor league relievers than I expected, which I don’t know what to make of that. But this seems like a relatively deep system – maybe lacking in obvious future starting pitchers, though that feels like a product of how pitching prospects work. They certainly should be set for the bullpen for years though, there is really no reason to ever sign a reliever with this kind of depth.