On Monday, I covered the hitters in the minor league with the exception of anybody in the rookie leagues. Today, it’s time to look at how the pitchers in the system performed – again with the exception of the rookie leagues. That’ll be covered next week. Let’s not waste any more time, we got a lot of names to cover.
Memphis
Quinn Mathews, 24 – LHP (#2 VEB prospect)
Stats: 22 GS, 94 IP, 25.4 K%, 17.5 BB%, 47.2 GB%, .302 BABIP, 3.93 ERA/4.51 FIP/5.00 xFIP
I think it’s fair to call this a disappointing season. Entering the season, if you had told me that the Cardinals would sell at the deadline, I would have considered it a lock that Mathews would pitch at the major league level this year were he healthy. What I didn’t think would happen would Mathews would struggle with his control a lot. And he didn’t really ever fix it – he walked 14 batters in his last three games combined.
Tekoah Roby, 23 – RHP (#10 VEB prospect)
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA/2.90 FIP/2.73 xFIP
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/4.01 FIP/4.04 xFIP
The Tommy John news was a real gut punch. When acquired as part of the deal for Jordan Montgomery, Roby was injured but managed to make four dominant appearances before the season ended. Then last year was injury-plagued and he wasn’t sharp when he was healthy. So when he began this year dominant in AA, he picked up where he left off from 2023. And he maintained that momentum into Memphis. But then, the season-ending injury. Despite the injury, I actually think his stock is higher than it was at the beginning of the year.
Gordon Graceffo, 25 – RHP (#12 VEB prospect)
Stats (AAA): 24 G (4 GS), 45.1 IP, 23.7 K%, 6.8 BB%, 50.4 GB%, .317 BABIP, 3.77 ERA/3.87 FIP/3.76 xFIP
Good news/bad news with Graceffo. The good news is he looks like a promising reliever – yeah he has an ugly ERA at the MLB level, but the advanced stats are a lot better. The bad news is that it at least looks like his future as a starter is done. The Cardinals gave him April – and between the majors and minors, he effectively had 6 starts. He gave up 18 earned runs in a combined 25.1 IP. After that, he was a reliever. Now this doesn’t change my outlook on him – he didn’t make my top 20 because I thought he was a reliever.
Sem Robberse, 23 – RHP (#13 VEB prospect)
Stats: 4 GS, 14.2 IP, 24.7 K%, 10.4 BB%, 46.8 GB%, .447 BABIP, 7.36 ERA/4.52 FIP/4.03 xFIP
Hard to judge the stats this season given it’s only 14.2 innings pitched and also at least one of the starts, he was likely pitching hurt – he gave up 7 runs in the appearance before he went on the injured list. He probably doesn’t need to be added to the 40 man, but it is worth pointing out that he got Tommy John surgery on May 14th – pitching at least half the season is very possible.
Max Rajcic, 23 – RHP (#20 VEB prospect)
Stats (AA): 16 GS, 73 IP, 22.4 K%, 8.4 BB%, 45.3 GB%, .321 BABIP, 4.07 ERA/3.73 FIP/3.85 xFIP
AAA: 11 GS, 45 IP, 12.7 K%, 12.2 BB%, 36.3 GB%, .318 BABIP, 6.40 ERA/7.27 FIP/6.51 xFIP
I did NOT know he pitched that poorly in AAA. That seemingly goes beyond an adjustment level and makes me think he really had trouble with the new baseball. Someone correct me if I’m wrong (Google is not helpful), but I believe AAA is working with the same baseball that MLBers do… but that it is a different baseball than the rest of the minor leagues. Which is very dumb, but not the first dumb thing MLB has done. Likely also affecting Mathews
Matt Svanson, 26 – RHP
Stats (AAA): 15 G, 21.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 9.2 BB%, 60.6 GB%, .385 BABIP, 3.32 ERA/3.45 FIP/3.64 xFIP
It’s certainly interesting that he has better stats in the majors. Though he had a 3.40 xFIP in the majors and AAA is certainly more of a hitter’s league than the majors. He struck out less and walked more, but he got a lot more groundballs. If I had to guess, expect a higher groundball rate (42.1% at MLB level), but I kind of expect a pretty noticeable drop in Ks (29.1%). Hopefully, it evens out.
Ryan Fernandez, 27 – RHP
Stats (AAA): 29 G, 34.2 IP, 33.3 K%, 13.6 BB%, 39 GB%, .289 BABIP, 3.12 ERA/2.86 FIP/3.87 xFIP
With two options and a 33% K rate in AAA, not to mention MLB stats post-trade deadline that look perfectly reminiscent of a bullpen shuttle guy, I imagine he’s coming back next season. Unless he’s just dominant out the gate, I also expect him to be up-and-down all year, having to earn his way back into, as BK and Ferrario call it, the Circle of Trust.
Chris Roycroft, 28 – RHP
Stats (AAA): 35 G, 46.2 IP, 22.4 K%, 11.4 BB%, 54.9 GB%, .341 BABIP, 4.82 ERA/4.14 FIP/4.09 xFIP
It would neither surprise me to see him DFA’d or brought back, but he certainly has a much worse case than Ryan Fernandez. He has the triple whammy of being worse at the MLB level this year and last year, and also worse in AAA this year. Given they aren’t exactly going for it next year, he might get another chance though.
Andre Granillo, 25 – RHP
Stats (AAA): 29 G, 42 IP, 36 K%, 8.7 BB%, 35.6 K%, .221 BABIP, 1.29 ERA/2.42 FIP/3.15 xFIP
It’s a little strange to see someone who struck out 36% of batters only strike out 19% in the majors. Granted he had a bit of a learning curve. He didn’t actually strike out his first batter until his fourth appearance. From July 27th to his last MLB appearance, he had a 27% K rate. He’ll be back.
Roddery Munoz, 25 – RHP
Stats (AAA): 38 G, 57.2 IP, 30.8 K%, 12.1 BB%, 47.8 GB%, .311 BABIP, 3.28 ERA/3.43 FIP/3.59 xFIP
Are these AAA stats good enough to bring him back next season but without the ability to option him to the minors? I think the Cardinals move on personally.
Nick Raquet, 29 – LHP
Stats (AA): 25 G, 35 IP, 26.8 K%, 4.2 BB%, 46.1 GB%, .305 BABIP, 0.77 ERA/2.05 FIP/3.24 xFIP
AAA: 14 G, 17.1 IP, 29.3 K%, 8 BB%, 45.5 GB%, .293 BABIP, 5.19 ERA/5.34 FIP/3.43 xFIP
I actually find it kind of interesting they promoted him, especially so late in the year, because he’s only actually spent 5 seasons in pro ball despite being drafted in 2017. He got released before the COVID season and the Cardinals signed him in 2024. So he wouldn’t be eligible for minor league free agency. He’s likely going to be DFA’d and exposed to all 30 teams as opposed to kept off the 40 man and just stay in the organization. But on the other hand, a guy who didn’t play in pro ball for four seasons got to make his MLB debut.
Curtis Taylor, 29 – RHP
Stats: 31 G (24 GS), 137.1 IP, 21 K%, 9.1 BB%, .265 BABIP, 42.5 GB%, 3.21 ERA/4.39 FIP/4.73 xFIP
I am very curious what happens to Curtis Taylor, who I am pretty certain is eligible for minor league free agency. I would be shocked if he’s added to the 40 man which means him coming back requires an extension. And that’s kind of where things get fascinating, because in my mind they have four locks for the AAA rotation – Henderson, Mautz, Hansen, Rajcic – and then a whole bunch of maybes: Mathews (who might be in MLB), Liam Doyle (who might be in AA), Victor Santos (if he’s healthy), Zack Thompson (if he’s starting and healthy and in the minors), Hancel Rincon (if he’s in AAA), and even somebody like Ian Bedell or Drew Rom. This does not strike me as an environment where the Cardinals would want to bring back a 30-year-old they didn’t even give a chance to this year or where Taylor would want to come back. He’ll have to get very lucky to get a shot at the majors again, because he’s getting jumped on the depth chart no matter how well he pitches if some of the under 25 guys are pitching well.
Skylar Hales, 23 – RHP
Stats (AA): 27 G, 25.2 IP, 30.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 45.2 GB%, .300 BABIP, 5.26 ERA/3.78 FIP/3.28 xFIP
AAA: 23 G, 27.1 IP, 20.3 K%, 11.7 BB%, 30.8 GB%, .250 BABIP, 8.23 ERA/7.14 FIP/5.96 xFIP
I mentioned this with Blaze Jordan and I’ll mention it here too: if you take the longer view of his 2025, there’s reason to be encouraged. He was pretty dominant in AA, and he took more than a few appearances to adjust to AAA. But in his last four appearances, he struck out 41% of batters, walked 8% and allowed one run. Here’s hoping he turned a corner.
Springfield
Tink Hence, 22 – RHP (VEB’s #3 prospect)
Stats: 3 GS, 10.2 IP, 33.3 K%, 14.3 BB%, 40.9 GB%, .238 BABIP, 4.22 ERA/3.73 FIP/3.81 xFIP
He’s purely a health issue at this point. He never really got past the rehab stage this season. I’m fairly certain he was supposed to be in Memphis, but just was never healthy.
Cooper Hjerpe, 24 – LHP (VEB’s #9 prospect)
Stats: N/A
Hjerpe had his Tommy John in April so here’s hoping he can start pitching as early as June.
Chen-Wei Lin, 23 – RHP (VEB’s #11 prospect)
Stats (High A): 12 GS, 38.2 IP, 27.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, 50 GB%, .283 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/3.69 FIP/4.17 xFIP
AA: 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 41.7 K%, 18.8 BB%, 50 GB%, .412 BABIP, 9.31 ERA/4.80 FIP/2.76 xFIP
What an unbelievably weird line he had in Springfield. I honestly remember him pitching poorly so it’s a little jarring to see the 2.76 xFIP. Good to know he had swing-and-miss stuff even with massive control issues. As you can see by the innings (and innings per start), he had some pretty big injury issues as well.
Ixan Henderson, 23 – LHP
Stats: 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA/3.16 FIP/4.00 xFIP
Not to diminish his excellent season, but I will say it’s a little less impressive than I thought it was. He had a good number of strikeouts, but it’s not outrageous. He walked a little too many and he didn’t get a lot of groundballs. Now, him being in the Texas League has to be taken into account, I just thought he was a little more dominant than his stats ended up being. (Basically, I expected a better xFIP)
Brycen Mautz, 23 – LHP
Stats: 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%, 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/3.58 FIP/3.20 xFIP
Case in point. Mautz did throw kind of a lot less innings for some reason, but he struck out more, walked less and got more groundballs. He actually posted a professional high K%, a professional best BB%, and his GB% fell in between his Low A and High A numbers. I actually think we’re not talking enough about this guy? Henderson got all the glory, but this dude is right there with him, if not even better.
Pete Hansen, 24 – LHP
Stats: 26 GS, 137.1 IP, 21.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, 46.2 GB%, .306 BABIP, 3.93 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.71 xFIP
I wish Hansen were either the same age as Henderson and Mautz or struck out more batters. It’s just kind of hard for me to be that excited about a 24-year-old striking out 21% of batters in AA and thinking he will have a future in an MLB rotation. That said, he has easily outdone what I expected he’d do in AA cause I thought he would hit a wall.
Hancel Rincon, 23 – RHP
Stats (High A): 10 G (9 GS), 49 IP, 23.9 K%, 8.3 BB%, 40.7 GB%, .280 BABIP, 4.22 ERA/3.69 FIP/3.75 xFIP
AA: 9 G (8 GS), 47.1 IP, 29.8 K%, 6.6 BB%, 41.9 GB%, .352 BABIP, 3.61 ERA/2.88 FIP/2.93 xFIP
The sample size and injury that knocked him out of the last two months prevents me from being too excited, but what a strange development. Rincon didn’t look like anything special – he couldn’t strike anyone out at Low A or High A the past two years. And then he makes modest improvements in High A, earning a promotion to AA, where…. he vastly improves his stats from anything he’s ever done. You don’t see that very often.
Luis Gastelum, 23 – RHP
Stats: 46 G, 62.2 IP, 35.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .343 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/2.19 FIP/2.31 xFIP
I’m not really sure what it is about him that is making hitters find a hole at a ridiculous rate, but that is something that has been the case for his pro career thus far, not just this year. A .341 BABIP against is the lowest his BABIP has been at any stop when he’s thrown at least 9 innings. It’s kind of bizarre given 35% of the time, they can’t even make contact. Anyway, good chance we see him in the majors at some point next season.
Austin Love, 26 – RHP
Stats: 41 G, 56 IP, 27.3 K%, 11.3 BB%, 39.1 GB%, .222 BABIP, 2.41 ERA/3.50 FIP/4.18 xFIP
He is a possible 40 man add because he is a Rule 5 candidate. I would be kind of surprised. Like Love’s baseball journey is unique, but it does kind of feel like nearly every team has a guy like this in their system. An older relief prospect with solid, but not spectacular stats in AA.
Randal Clemente, 23 – RHP
Stats (High A): 7 G, 9.2 IP, 32.4 K%, 10.8 BB%, 40 GB%, .150 BABIP 1.86 ERA/2.48 FIP/3.39 xFIP
AA: 12 G, 14 IP, 27.5 K%, 26.1 BB%, 60 GB%, .241 BABIP, 6.43 ERA/5.95 FIP/5.83 xFIP
I like that they sent him to the AFL – makes me think higher of him. But I also look at those AA stats and think “wow he’s going to get destroyed in the AFL.” So.. surprise me Randal!
Michael Watson, 23 – LHP
Stats (Low A): 4 G, 7.1 IP, 33.3 K%, 13.3 BB%, 60 GB%, .400 BABIP, 8.59 ERA/2.87 FIP/3.58 xFIP
High A: 22 G, 34.1 IP, 25 K%, 14.9 BB%, 40.5 GB%, .198 BABIP, 3.41 ERA/5.04 FIP/4.49 xFIP
AA: 17 G, 24.1 IP, 30.5 K%, 10.5 BB%, 40.8 GB, .226 BABIP, 1.11 ERA/2.67 FIP/3.55 xFIP
This season doesn’t make a lot of sense. He for some reason started the year in Low A – he struck out 47% of hitters there last season – and it was clear he was down just for roster crunch reasons. Cause he didn’t pitch particularly well and was still promoted. He was okay in High A. And then he was great in AA. Took him some time to find his groove clearly.
Hunter Hayes, 24 – RHP
Stats (High A): 27 G, 47.2 IP, 22.3 K%, 11.4 BB%, 48.6 GB%, .326 BABIP, 5.66 ERA/4.48 FIP/4.02 xFIP
AA: 9 G, 16.1 IP, 25.7 K%, 8.6 BB%, 29.3 GB%, .318 BABIP, 2.20 ERA/2.72 FIP/3.80 xFIP
Okay this is a small sample, but seriously what the hell? Is the Peoria pitching coach just terrible? Springfield pitching coach the next Leo Mazzone? (I would use Dave Duncan, but too many Ks). Or is Peoria the place they are experimenting with a different pitch or improving a pitch they already have and then they figure it out down there and when they reach Springfield, they see the results. Or is this just random, because relievers are random in the minors too.
Edwin Nunez, 23 – RHP
Stats: 22 G, 27.1 IP, 23.1 K%, 24.5 BB%, 44.1 GB%, .348 BABIP, 10.54 ERA/6.96 FIP/6.78 xFIP
Okay, well not everyone got the magic pixie dust. I’m listing Nunez because he was ranked the 23rd prospect by Fangraphs and the Cardinals tried to convert him to starter, pretty much because they gave up on Jordan Hicks, the starter, too soon. He was quite bad as a starter, so they moved him back to relief. He’s still bad.
I don’t know if it speaks to the pitching depth compared to the position player depth, but I’m going to have to end this here. I was a little worried the rookie leagues would be a rather short post, so that worry is out the window. We’re going to have a part three covering the rest of the pitchers and I’ll combine it with the rookie league players of note.