It’s kind of unfortunate for Yairo Padilla that he came up at the same time as Rainiel Rodriguez. Some sites had him as the better prospect entering 2025. And then, well, 2025 happened. I think the perception of Padilla was certainly negatively affected by Rodriguez’s rise, even though that doesn’t really make sense, just because they were bunched together and then they very much weren’t. Now, I don’t know that Padilla will rank radically different for me, but he also wasn’t on my top 20 last year, so I don’t feel like I’ve downgraded him after a pretty positive year. Here’s the list:
- JJ Wetherholt
- Liam Doyle
- Rainiel Rodriguez
- Quinn Mathews
- Jurrangelo Cjintje
- Joshua Baez
- Leonardo Bernal
- Jimmy Crooks
- Brandon Clarke
- Tink Hence
- Tekoah Roby
- Tanner Franklin
- Brycen Mautz
- Nathan Church
- Cooper Hjerpe
- Ixan Henderson
- Yairo Padilla
Comparable Player Poll
I think this is going to be the last comparable player poll. I already know the next two players I will add. Or I should say, I know two of the three people I will be adding to the vote. Obviously, one of them is this vote, so I certainly would hope I know who I’m adding right now. The third is between the two people below you. I haven’t decided if the winner of this vote is going on the next vote or the last vote. Both of these players have won comparable player polls and short of removing a player from the voting, which I might honestly still do, I’d kind of be guessing which one to add, which I’d prefer not to do.
Blake Aita was a 6th round draft pick in the same draft as Dutkanych, but not by the Cardinals. Drafted by the Red Sox, his command-oriented approach led him to play about half the season in Low A and half in High A. He posted average K rates, but didn’t walk many. He pitched well enough to earn a trip to AA, but I suspect the depth of the pitching will see him in High A to begin the year. He’ll be 23.
Andrew Dutkanych is someone you guys are very familiar with if you’ve been voting on every poll. He’s already been in two of these and won both of them. He was a 7th round draft pick, drafted with the full knowledge that he had recently undergone Tommy John surgery and thus was not going to be able to pitch much last year. He pitch in both rookie league and Low A, basically a glorified reliever, but missed some bats and some of the strike zone. He will be 22 and probably repeating Low A.
New Add
I always try to add a relief prospect by the 18th vote, and I do that because we’ve actually had a relief prospect be the 18th prospect in the system twice. If I add any doubt whatsoever about adding a relief prospect, it was removed when Luis Gastelum completely dominated the vote. Like he received 123 votes and the next highest total was 12. He should be in the voting for sure.
Jesus Baez, IF – 21
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244/.327/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+
Scouting (FG): 30/45 Hit, 35/50 Game Power, 50/55 Raw Power, 40/40 Speed, 40/45 Fielding
There’s always one guy who I add to the voting too early. There’s a high upside, but high variance prospect who I’m not totally sure how this crowd feels about, and I add them as early as possible just so that I don’t add them too late. Well Baez has been on the vote since the 6th vote and I have long since run out of things to say about Baez. You get the picture. Jesus Baez personally ran Keith Law’s mother over with a car, he has a rep for chasing, and yet statistically, nothing looks bad from my eyes.
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19
Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA/2.41 FIP/3.29 xFIP
Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA/2.50 FIP/3.14 xFIP
Scouting: 40/45 Fastball, 55/60 Slider, 30/50 Change, 35/50 Command
It is kind of crazy to be this late in the game and have guys like Baez and Fajardo still be in the voting and it not be some gross misjustice. Like just think about the fact that there is a 19-year-old who pitched very well in both rookie league and Low A and you can still vote for this guy at 18 or 19 or 20 and I just think this guy is already on the list in the other three years I’ve done this. I don’t think this group was even that high on Padilla, but by 15 last year, the other options were just not that exciting. We still have kind of exciting options at 18!
Luis Gastelum, 24 – RHP
Stats (AA): 46 G, 62.2 IP, 35.4 K%, 6.5 BB%, 48.3 GB%, .343 BABIP, 4.02 ERA/2.19 FIP/2.31 xFIP
Scouting: 45/45 Fastball, 40/40 Slider, 65/65 Change, 50/55 Command
Yes, Gastelum is posting those numbers with effectively one pitch. I mean yeah you can see he has other pitches, but the changeup is how he strikes out over a third of batters he faces. As one can imagine, when you imagine someone throwing a changeup in your mind, it’s not going to look like Gastelum’s change. It looks more like what you expect a breaking ball to do. That is in fact what Mets’ announcer Gary Cohen called it in a recent spring training game.
Pete Hansen, LHP – 25
Stats (AA): 26 GS, 137.1 IP, 21.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, 46.2 GB%, .306 BABIP, 3.93 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.71 xFIP
Scouting: 35/35 Fastball, 45/50 Slider, 40/40 Curve, 50/55 Change, 55/60 Command
What I find particularly fascinating about Hansen’s scouting report is that one would think Fangraphs was low on him, but they aren’t. They definitely aren’t. They ranked him 10th in the system last season. But that 35 fastball grade kind of pops out at you. It’s the kind of grade you give to a prospect that you aren’t typically high on, so I suppose it provides an insight into what FG thinks of the importance of command. You don’t usually see 60 command prospects.
Blaze Jordan, 23 – 1B/3B
Stats (AA): 176 PAs, .320/.415/.513, 12.5 BB%, 10.8 K%, .193 ISO, .333 BABIP, 167 wRC+, 145 DRC+
AAA: 368 PAs, .248/.291/.423, 5.7 BB%, 11.1 K%, .175 ISO, .247 BABIP, 83 wRC+, 101 DRC+
Scouting: 40/50 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 60/60 Raw Power, 30/30 Speed, 40/45 Fielding
The problems that Blaze Jordan needs to overcome in order to be a productive hitter strike me as very similar to the problems that Alec Burleson once had. Burleson flew through the minors, had a better hit tool, and had the platoon advantage in the majority of his plate appearances, but broadly speaking – guy who doesn’t strike out much needs to be more selective with his swing choices – that describes Blaze Jordan too.
Colton Ledbetter, 24 – OF
Stats (AA): 535 PAs, .265/.337/.378, 9.5 BB%, 23.9 K%, .114 ISO, .339 BABIP, 112 wRC+
Scouting: 30/35 Hit, 40/50 Game Power, 55/55 Raw Power, 50/40 Speed, 50/50 Fielding
Story is pretty clear cut on Ledbetter. He previously had a bit of a strikeout problem, but with the strikeouts came a lot of power. At AA last season, Ledbetter managed to get his strikeouts to a more reasonable level, but it did come with significantly less power. His goal I assume will be to merge the power with a more reasonable strikeout rate.
Chen-Wei Lin, 24 – RHP
Stats (Low A): 12 GS, 38.2 IP, 27.2 K%, 17.2 BB%, 50 GB%, .283 BABIP, 4.89 ERA/3.69 FIP/4.17 xFIP
High A: 4 GS, 9.2 IP, 41.7 K%, 18.8 BB%, 50 GB%, .412 BABIP, 9.31 ERA/4.80 FIP/2.76 xFIP
Scouting: 60/70 Fastball, 40/45 Slider, 40/60 Change, 30/40 Command
The scouting is definitely reflective of a relief prospect, but by no means are the Cardinals giving up on him starting. Mostly because you can actually start if you have a 70 fastball and a 60 change, that is a lethal combo. As you can also see by the scouting, he’s not there yet with either pitch. The slider isn’t great, but just having a third option to go to with two elite pitches can still work as a starter. He’ll need better command of course.
Ryan Mitchell, 19 – OF
No stats
Scouting: 25/55 Hit, 25/50 Game Power, 40/55 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 25/50 Fielding
No one carrying tool for Mitchell, but just an overall well-rounded profile, which also happens to be kind of a boring scouting profile. You can dream on a better power tool even if it came with a worse hit tool, but everything being average or above average all adds up to a potentially great player, just not real eye-popping in the way ranking prospects tends to reward.
Deniel Ortiz, 21 – 1B/3B
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285/.406/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+
High A: 130 PAs, .336/.438/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+
Scouting (Baseball Savant): /45 Hit, /55 Power, /55 Arm, /45 Field
I will once again mention that those scouting grades are his potential, but that Savant has not posted the “current” scouting grades. Although if you think about it, the current is not super relevant for a guy in High A. You can kind of draw your own conclusions based on the stats to some extent. Also you don’t necessarily care if they don’t have trouble with swing-and-miss at the lower levels, you want to know if he will have trouble. Ortiz cutting down his K rate upon promotion strikes me as a fairly good sign.
Tai Peete, OF – 20
Stats (High A): 529 PAs, .217/.288/.404, 8.7 BB%, 30.6 K%, .187 ISO, .282 BABIP, 79 wRC+, 79 DRC+
Scouting: 20/30 Hit, 30/50 Game Power, 50/60 Raw Power, 60/60 Speed, 45/55 Fielding
One thing I’ll note about scouting grades, and this is super relevant to Peete I think, is that the potential isn’t necessarily static. That does not mean his 30 grade potential hit tool is always going to be a 30 grade. From where the hit tool stands now, the scout can’t see better than a 30 in his future. But Peete can make improvements and changes. Joshua Baez probably had a 30 hit tool as his potential before last season. But he changed and made improvements.