Week 1: Starting Pitching
Week 2: Catchers
Week 3: Corner Infield
Week 4: Middle Infield
We are less than two weeks until Opening Day and despite most outlets choosing the St. Louis Cardinals to finish last in the NL Central, I am still feeling giddy for the first pitch of the season, likely to be delivered by Matthew Liberatore. Even with that short time to go until games actually matter in the standings, the Cardinals are still sorting through what was the biggest roster competition of the spring: who starts in left field?
The St. Louis Cardinals need to find an answer at all three outfield spots
The Cardinals have been trying to find some stability in their outfield after running through an established set of veterans for a handful of years at a time, but have not yet found that consistent building block. This can be evidenced by the fact that the last Cardinal outfielder to win a Silver Slugger came in 2010 when Matt Holliday did it, and before then it was Ryan Ludwick in 2008 and Jim Edmonds in 2005.
Not only does that show the offense has been lacking for years, it also shows that the Cardinals’ Devil Magic in the grass might have been gone for longer than we figured. Even though the outfield has been a cycle of names, it had been productive, finishing in the top 10 by fWAR for total production from 2010-2020. Then, I moved that timeline from 2021 through last season and it was a total bummer. The Cardinals outfielders since 2021 have ranked 19th-best in all of baseball, and when moving the timeline to 2023 for their first year of their missed postseason streak, they drop all the way down to being the fifth-worst producing outfielders in the MLB.
By games played, the players with the most appearances in the outfield during that time are all a part of the current roster. Lars Nootbaar’s 381 games played in those three seasons leads the group, with Jordan Walker (260), Alec Burleson (203), and Victor Scott II (184) grabbing the most playing time before getting to the departed Brendan Donovan. Now, Burly will be playing the vast majority of his games at first base, leaving Noot, Vic, and Walker to roam the grass. Let’s look at what that means for the 2026 Cardinals and last week, we had Redbird Farmhands on to discuss what he has seen or not seen from the outfield group.
Lars Nootbaar
I am going to call Noot the elephant in the room, but honestly, each of these three guys have some issues that need fixing that could all be considered the obvious items needing attention. Since 2023, when he has been healthy Nootbaar has been a productive player. Over that three year span, the outfielder has accumulated 5.6 fWAR, which ranks 31st in baseball during that time. When looking at the 30 players above him, Noot’s 37 homers in three seasons only slots above Steven Kwan, Christian Yelich, and Sal Frelick. Kwan is four fWAR better than Noot, Yelich has an MVP and a track record of success before being slowed by injury, and Frelick has 43 steals and above-average defense to help make up for the lack of power.
As we wait yet again for Nootbaar to prove that his Statcast measurements are more than just intriguing potential, someone else is going to have to step up and fill his spot while he is on the injured list for an undetermined amount of time. This is the real competition in camp.
We heard throughout the offseason that the Cardinals were interested in adding a righty power bat, but the only move close to that was a non-roster invite to former prospect Nelson Velazquez. After an impressive opposite field homer and another flyout to right that just missed going over, Velazquez is the newest talk of camp and fans believe he is an easy choice for the Opening Day roster. While I am impressed by what he has shown and the potential he had as a prospect, my only hangup is the 40-man roster spot. Not that I think anyone in spots 38-40 is untouchable, but those might be the guys that Chaim Bloom and Co. want to see what they have before a DFA or trade from the 40-man roster for an unknown in Velazquez.
Of course, there’s a reason some of those guys are even in that 40-man limbo and at the end of Spring Training, most teams are looking to subtract from their roster rather than add. In that case, the Cardinals may be able to sneak out-of-options guys through the waiver process and hold onto Velazquez for as long as he stays hot. More on the rest of the outfield later, but I had to give Velazquez a blurb of his own.
Victor Scott II
Before diving further into the question mark that is left field, the clearest outfield lock for Opening Day stands in center field in the form of Victor Scott II. Those with me for awhile know that I am not super high on VSII’s offensive potential, but I understand how small the sample size has been while remembering that Scott skipped Triple-A before making his MLB debut, a promotion usually saved for polished prospects with guaranteed playign time.
Before I harp too much on his offense, it is clear that VSII’s value rests in his legs and his glove. He made good on those tools last year, ranking among the league leaders in sprint speed and fielding value while stealing 34 bases and being named a Gold Glove finalist in centerfield. He set his personal goal for the season to be 70 stolen bases, and for a Cardinals team that stole 89 total last season while losing much of their power, this team is going to have to run.
For Scott’s part, though, he needs to find ways to get on base. Of the 17 center fielders in baseball who received at least 400 plate appearances, the St. Louis center fielder ranked 13th in fWAR and his .587 OPS was dead last by over 60 percentage points. That 72 wRC+ was only better than Brenton Doyle from Colorado and now leaves Scott with something to prove this year, despite only entering his age-25 season. So far this spring, the results have been mixed for the outfielder who spent time this offseason getting his swing studied and reworked.
In 23 at-bats, VSII has trimmed his strikeout rate while drawing more walks, but the end line results still leave something to be desired. Of course, Scott is going through massive swing changes, so the early .174 batting average and four total hits can easily be attributed to that. One thing that I am not as understanding of, though, is the fact that Scott leads the Cactus League in sacrifice bunts… in Spring Training. Scott is also working on bunting more, which is likely what he is going to have to do to get on base more often than when he swings away, but if the swing really underwent some reconstruction, I would rather have him working on that during games instead of bunts. Without being able to actually watch all of his bunt attempts on TV, his sacrifices may have been attempted drag bunts, but again, I feel there may be a better time to work on that in live game situations like in live bullpens or the backfields.
ZiPS projects an overall improvement on Scott’s final hitting line in 2026, but it is still a far cry from the .303 batting average and .794 OPS he put up in the minors in 2023 when he also stole 94 bases. The model estimates a 79 wRC+, .621 OPS, and 36 stolen bases for the speedy outfielder this season. A noticeable improvement, but nothing that would make me willing to go to the extension table or call him an untouchable piece, especially in a lineup that lacks pop. For what it is worth, manager Oli Marmol has shouted out VSII’s offensive approach and his progress with the bat, so when the lights turn on, we’ll see how that translates.
Jordan Walker
I will leave this one relatively short. While I said Scott needs to prove something, the same can be said for Walker but with exponentially greater future impact. The former top prospect is currently stuck in a failure to launch phase after experiencing success in the minor leagues. I used fWAR and OPS to compare VSII to his peers, and I unfortunately did the same for Walker. To spare you the eyesore of seeing it on FanGraphs, he ranked 17th out of 17 qualified right fielders in both measures.
We have heard it all before, launch angle, sliders, defense… There is really no arguing that Walker has not managed to take the step we all hoped as he expected him to fortify right field for the next decade. Now, he is fighting for his position on the major league roster and, at just 23-years-old, he only has one minor league option season remaining. Not so much here, because the baseball IQ is much greater than elsewhere, but the amount of people I see saying that Walker needs to be in Memphis seems a little wonky. If there was a second option remaining, AND someone waiting in the ranks (no, Josh Baez is not ready), then I would be more open to that idea.
For this year, Walker, for lack of better terms, deserves to be on the major league roster, but his leash is likely shorter than any other player who is expected to have a starting job. He is yet to hit 1,000 major league at-bats, number Nolan Gorman has far surpassed yet I believe the third baseman gets more leeway than Walker. ZiPS projects another negative fWAR season, but it again expects an improvement from what he did in 2025. Walker is projected to hit .232 with 14 homers and 58 RBI, good for an 88 wRC+. As mediocre as those numbers sound, all of those would be his highest output since his rookie season, with 58 runs driven in representing a career-high. If that season were to happen, Walker could possibly play his way into another “final chance” season in 2027. That would probably get an eye roll or seven from Cardinal Nation, but there is always the question of hold on too long or let go too soon?
The Starting Left Fielder
Who takes over for Noot? I teased the idea of Velazquez already, but even with 12 days until Opening Day, it might be too early to hand him a roster spot. Since a 40-man move would be required, be it DFA or 60-day IL usage, the Cardinals likely want to be sure Velazquez’s performance is validated, not just from his numbers, but also from the eye test and advanced metrics. Marmol continues to give the outfielder every opportunity to win the job, as he sits near the top of the team this spring with 10 games played, and his three homers lead the squad. The ball might be in Velazquez’ court for the starting job while Noot is out.
While his inclusion on the roster would necessitate some finagling elsewhere, FanGraphs currently has lefty Nathan Church penciled in as the starting option in left field. The 25-year-old lefty is already on the big league roster and received a teeny cup of espresso last season with the Cardinals. Church has performed well in Spring Training so far, hitting a double and homer in his 20 at-bats while also taking four walks. The lefty hit .329 last season in 86 games between AA and AAA, and set a career high with 13 homers and added 16 stolen bases. Church is a solid fielder with a great arm who could become a Nootbaar replacement straight up. Around the clubhouse, Church has been praised for his work ethic and his Brendan Donovan-esque demeanor. If Velazquez falters for the last week, Church could be ticketed to the Opening Day lineup when the team heads north.
Behind those two sit Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin, both of whom looked to have a shot at winning an Opening Day job, with one in a utility role and the other expanding their bag of tricks to an outfield spot. Now, though, it may be one of those guys settling in on the bench and the other in Memphis after the Cardinals brought in Ramon Urias, along with the potential of adding Church and Velazquez to the squad. I was personally hoping Saggese would get a shot at consistent playing time, even if that did not mean a starting spot. With the Cardinals lineup lacking pop, Saggese at least showed some ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark with his minor league track record. Fermin is a faster, more athletic defender who probably fits a utility role better, but he has been limited with the bat in his 10 professional seasons. The inclusion of Urias makes one of these two expendable, since they are both young players that the organization has kept around. Fermin might have a slight advantage because he is out of options, but if Velazquez were to stay hot, the Cardinals may opt to risk Fermin hitting the waiver wire to open up a spot for the righty power bat.
Regardless of the direction they go, the Cardinals’ outfield may go a long way in telling us how long this rebuild might last. If none of the three above can maintain consistent production, the team will have to rely on Josh Baez to add a spark to the current team while Chaim Bloom may have to adjust any drafting plans and change his focus to the grass.
SELF PROMO OF THE WEEK
- 10 days until Opening Day, which means your time to enter Redbird Rundown’s May 4 Coca Cola ticket giveaway is nearing the end! Go to Patreon.com/RedbirdRundown, sign up for just $1, and you’re entered!
- While Redbird Rundown covered the position battles with Farmhands, I sat down with Nate Schwartz of Pitcher List and Thomas Gauvain from Redbird Rants to talk about the rotation. Matthew Liberatore and Richard Fitts have been impressive, but what is their future?
- Random Cardinal of the Week stayed super random this week as Jim featured Jason Simontacchi! He was one of the first players I remember responding to me as a kid in the bleachers of Busch Stadium during BP and how can you look past the high socks?!
- Tonight at 6pm, our fearless VEB Podcast host Jake Wood joined the Redbird Rundown as we took a bunch of over/unders that were set for the Cardinals roster and we broke down our thoughts on each one. I had an inch of standing water in my basement and now have 15 industrial fans down there, so I recorded outside in 25º weather for you all! Make sure you hit the comments and let us know where you agree or disagree! Please follow on Spotify and YouTube to help us continue to grow!
Thanks as always!