Checking on the St. Louis Cardinals at the 54-game mark

Old-school baseball guys think the 60-game mark is where a team needs to re-assess where they are at versus what they thought they had coming out of spring training. Tony LaRussa used to say (maybe he still does) that teams need to shoot for a record of 30-30 or better, re-assess and go from there. I like 54 games because of the symmetry of being exactly one-third of the season. Either works, I suppose.

What did we think they were back in March?

To assess and re-evaluate, it pays to re-visit what the expectations were coming out of Spring Training.

• People were concerned about the offense, particularly the power. Where would it come from?
• The bullpen was expected to be a strong point. The rotation? A question mark, but likely no worse than 2025.
• The defense was expected to be a bit better with returning players to their more comfortable positions such as Burleson (to first) and Gorman (back to third).
• Overall, while the opinions varied widely, most expected a slightly sub-.500 team, with many in the high 60’s and low 70’s for wins. A few optimists thought 85 wins was doable.

How has it played out to-date, relative to the first 1/3 of 2025 season?

One way of looking at it is to compare this year to last year’s team at the same point in time. Not a totally valid comparison, because in between, they subtracted talent from the MLB roster and added it to the MiLB pipeline. But perhaps instructive, nonetheless. Indulge me. By the numbers…

Last year at this point, the Cardinals were 30-24, in 2nd place, 3 games out in the division and 1 game behind in the WC race. They carried a +40 run differential with 246 RS and 216 RA. This year, at the same point, they are 29-25, 4.5 games out in the division and tied for the last wild card spot with many. The carry a -10 run differential, with 235 RS and 245 RA.

They have backslid offensively, not surprising given that they traded away 3 line-up stalwarts with no real upgrade. They have also backslid a fair bit in run prevention (in spite of unloading 2 less than productive starters). The offensive improvement shows up mostly in the HR total (at 60, up from 49 at this point in 2025). Overall offensive WAR to-date is 6.8 as opposed to 8.2 last year. This point-to-point comparison may not be totally valid, as the first third last year was the nadir of offensive production in 2025, led by Donovan, Nootbaar, Burleson and Contreras. There was significant fall-off from Donovan and Nootbaar in the latter 2/3 of the 2025 season and the team that finished 2025 was not the same as the one that started.

On the pitching front, last year’s team had accumulated 6.3 fWAR by this point. This year’s team? 1.7 fWAR. Remarkable that they are only 1 game off last year’s pace. Speaking of pace, I like to read that the current team is on pace for 87 (ish) wins. By that thinking, last year’s team was on pace for 90 wins. Except they weren’t. Pace isn’t a reliable predictor of baseball outcomes, with one data point in support being that 90-win pace team finished with 78 wins. Now, I’m not predicting a similar collapse this year, just that multiplying the current win total times 3 is about as good a predictor of the future as flipping a coin.

How has it played out to-date, relative to the last 1/3 of 2025 season?

Authors note: This paragraph is a late add at the suggestion of contributor CTCardinal. He ran down the data for me and I’m adding it this morning. Think of this in Mark Twain terms…a Connecticut Cardinal in King ORSTL’s Court”, or something like that.

This look encapsulates how the 2026 team has performed relative to how the team that ended 2025 was going, after Helsley, Maton and Fedde were moved. What do we see in the chart above? CT writes:

The first 54 games for the 2026 squad show a healthy improvement over the final configuration of the 2025 team, and that trajectory is important. It seems like a step forward. We can only guess if we have already seen peak 2026 performance or not. How the roster churns over the next couple of months will be interesting. As many have already said, there are below-replacement-level holes that exist and whether or not guys in the minors are ready to improve those spots in the latter half of the batting order or in the bullpen remains to be seen. But that’s part of the appeal of this ballclub: we don’t have high-priced veterans blocking anyone, so we will begin to learn how Bloom’s approach to roster construction varies from what many of us got tired of seeing from Mozeliak.

I would add that the improvement seems concentrated on the offensive side, which is a marvel considering that this NOT where they added. Those who bemoaned the veterans blocking young guys can certainly feel validated, as the data suggest you were spot on.

That the pitching bears similarities to last year should not be a surprise. This is fundamentally the same staff as ended last year with May subbing in for Gray. The meaningful changes they made to the pitching are to be found in the AA and A rotations.

What has gone well?

Well, we have enough data now to have moved past small sample size in most metrics, except defensive ones like OAA and DRS. What can we discern?

• Jordan Walker has it in him. This has gone almost as well as anyone could have reasonably hoped. I can’t overstate the impact this has not only on this year’s team, but on long-term planing.
• JJ Wetherholt is the real deal. Offense, defense, baseball acumen.
• These two are the two main difference between 2025 and 2026 and they are impactful differences.
• The team dynamic and sequencing has been better this year. Random stuff, bound to normalize? Hard to say, but some luck is created by things like good baserunning and good defense and other things tougher to measure.
• Burleson and Herrera are hitters. The four above begin to form an offensive core, that while incomplete, is a solid base to start from.

What has not gone well?

• Nolan Gorman remains stuck offensively, although his defense has been a pleasant surprise. Mostly the lack of power is the primary concern.
• Masyn Winn hasn’t progressed offensively. Simple as that. He is only 24. There is time.
• Victor Scott II seems mostly lost, although his xwOBA has been steadily improving the last 3 weeks. Both his offense and defense are below par for what is needed from him.
• The bullpen is not good.
• The bench is … not good. The manager tells us that through his refusal to play them. I’m convinced they didn’t even take Saggese on the road trip.
• Upper-level long-term minor league pitching injuries continue to bite. Henderson, Hence, Roby, Fitts make up a good chunk of the AAA talent that was to emerge this summer. We won’t see them until next year.

What remains to be determined?

• On the bright side, answers are formulating. That helps decide the direction. Some things are better, some things worse, but now they know (or have a good idea) where the holes really are that aren’t fillable with a prospect who just needs runway.
• Are we still confident that Winn is a core member? (I am, but I hear rumblings…)
• What is Nolan Gorman?
• What is Nathan Church?
• What about the AAA talent (Baez, Crooks, Jordan)? Are they MLB ready? Are they answers?
• Has so much pitching been set back that 2027 really isn’t a realistic year to expect emergence?

How might we modify the outlook for the rest of the year?

Do we have enough data to re-calibrate our expectations of the season. Have you seen enough to update your expected W-L?

I came into the season think 78 +/- wins would probably be where this team lands. I’m not inclined to come off that view. If I was, I’d probably reduce my win expectancy a bit. They’ve done better in the first third than I expected, but I don’t think that translates into more success in the next two-thirds. Why?

• Offensively, their fortunes are fundamentally tied to Wetherholt, Walker, Burleson and Herrera being top 20th percentile hitters all season. If they can avoid slumps and injuries, this could happen, but that is asking a lot. If it doesn’t happen, things could get rough quickly.
• Bullpen-wise, I don’t see a pathway to fix the bullpen in a meaningful way. I do expect Leahy to end up back there, but there just isn’t much coming from Memphis. No power arms that I can see.
• Starting pitching-wise, they are who they are. Reliable, steady, low wattage. Enough to keep them in most games, not enough to win if their offense slumps at all. Similar to the core offensive pieces, they don’t have the depth to withstand slump or injury. Similar to the offensive core, if slump or injuries arise, things could get rough quickly.
• The trade deadline will do what slump and injury may not, in that it could well deplete what pitching depth there is as Stanek, May, Romero represent expiring contracts that smart teams move for future value. Youngsters may be poised to arrive around that time, but holding their own might be the optimistic outcome.

Could they contend?

Sure. Baseball is funny. And random at random times and in random ways.

Nootbaar could come back hale and hearty. Baez could emerge as a force. This would be a deep line-up then, with six “plus” hitters in addition to league average Gorman and Winn. Better than most, I’d say.

The pitching could improve and avoid injury. A deep line-up could overcome some of the rougher parts of the pitching equation. But that bullpen….