Not surprising they are a good team, but it is surprising how good they’ve been
Yesterday was one of those games that, in the middle of watching it, I realized it wasn’t the Cardinals day. Not in a way where the Cardinals actually played badly, just that it seemed like the universe was saying “Yeah not today guys.” They had some of the worst sequencing you will ever see in a baseball game. They had TWELVE hits, a walk, two hit by pitches, and oh yeah one of those hits was a home run. If that results in one run, okay fair enough baseball didn’t want you to win that one.
Which is to say it didn’t really kill my vibe about the team. This series might. This is a tough one. I don’t think they actually are, but the Detroit Tigers have played like they’re the best team in baseball. They have the most wins and they have the second highest run differential, and first place is only +3 runs better.
Offense
The offense has a 117 wRC+ so far this season. This offense is likely not this good. They are 12th in BB%, 8th in ISO, and 20th in K%. So they strike out a fair amount, takes a few walks, and have power. They also have a .311 BABIP, which is 2nd best in baseball. Zack McKinstry surprisingly has a 125 wRC+ on the year. It’s because of BABIP. A career .285 BABIP hitter, McKinstry has a .382 BABIP to start this season.
It also says a lot about the rest of the offense that their BB% is as high as 12th in baseball. Because Javier Baez, seeing a career resurgence, still doesn’t walk, and he actually has a teammate who walks even less than him, Dillon Dingler. Dingler has a .372 BABIP as their regular catcher, and also a 1.5 BB%. He has more hit by pitches than walks on the year. Baez, meanwhile can play CF well apparently. His 131 wRC+ is fueled by a .344 BABIP.
Leadoff hitter Kerry Carpenter doesn’t walk either. He has just 5 walks in 167 plate appearances. But he doesn’t strike out a lot and has a .222 ISO, so he doesn’t need any BABIP for his 135 wRC+. Gleyber Torres has gotten off to a weird start, in that he never ever strikes out anymore. He has more walks than strikeouts and has struck out in just 9.3% of plate appearances. He has a 137 wRC+. Almost everyone in this lineup has a great hitting line for the record.
That includes a breakout season from Spencer Torkelson, who after a 2-4 with a double day yesterday, has a 147 wRC+. He’s already hit 12 homers this year. He takes his fair share of walks. Riley Greene has 11 homers to his name for a 137 wRC+. Colt Keith has a 113 wRC+, though he’s been horrible on defense. Trey Sweeney is the only hitter who has a below average hitting line and it’s a 95 wRC+ at SS.
Bullpen
The Tigers have played in five straight one-run games leading up to this series. The bullpen has blown three saves, though in two of them, the Tigers won the game. They have been worked pretty hard as of late. Closer Will Vest has pitched in two of the last three games, and he throw over 20 pitches in both. He blew Saturday’s game that they later lost. And he wasn’t available Friday because he had thrown a combined 50 pitches in back-to-back games before an off-day on Thursday. He’s thrown 95 pitches since last Tuesday. He has a 29.1 K% and 1.66 ERA this season.
Tommy Kahnle, one of the set-up men, has thrown 72 pitches since last Tuesday, including yesterday’s game. Beau Briske threw both Friday and Saturday. So did groundball specialist Brenan Hanifee, who has just a 15.2 K% but a 57.7 GB%. Old friend John Brebbia is in their bullpen, not really getting high leverage roles, and he’s mostly benefiting from a .194 BABIP so far. Interestingly, they have two solid lefties in Brant Hurter and Sean Guenther, both of whom bareley pitched this past week. Blue Jays (opponent this past weekend) don’t have a lot of lefties.
Monday – 6:45 PM
Keider Montero (4.68 ERA/5.83 FIP/4.85 xFIP) vs. Sonny Gray (4.50 ERA/4.25 FIP/3.53 xFIP)
I don’t like to enter a series where it feels like the Cardinals HAVE to win game one. Especially against a team with a great offense. You have a tough series and the pitching matchups don’t necessarily look great…except for game one. It always puts me in a position where I’m convinced the Cardinals are getting swept if they don’t take game one. And I don’t really like that feeling.
Because yeah Sonny Gray is better than Keider Montero. This is easily the most winnable game of the series. I don’t love that Gray is coming off a bad start, but that game had unusual circumstances. It was a doubleheader, it was rainy, sometimes those games get away from you. It’s up to the Cardinals to hit Montero (who has just a 16.5 K% this season) and Gray to be back on his game.
Tuesday – 6:45 PM
Tarik Skubal (2.67 ERA/2.12 FIP/2.21 xFIP) vs. Erick Fedde (3.44 ERA/4.12 FIP/5.15 xFIP)
This is such a hilariously lopsided pitching matchup that baseball can do the funny thing it does and have the Cardinals actually win this game. Because Skubal is just about unhittable and Fedde is unfortunately very hittable. Just about no advanced stat thinks Fedde should have a 3.44 ERA. Hopefully Fedde brings his A game.
Wednesday – 12:15 PM
Jack Flaherty (4.44 ERA/4.52 FIP/3.35 xFIP) vs. Andre Pallante (4.11 ERA/4.85 FIP/3.65 xFIP)
On paper, I actually don’t think this matchup is that much of a mismatch. It’s just that I think Flaherty is the kind of guy to pitch “up” to the Cardinals as we saw last year. While I’m sure he’ll be just as motivated to win as last season, maybe it not being the first start against the team that drafted him will help a little.
I’m going to guess that this is not the game where Pallante’s HR/FB% normalizes given the Tigers hit homers at a good clip. They have 60 on the season, which ranks 7th in all of baseball. By comparison, the Cardinals have just 45 homers.
This will definitely be an interesting series and I’ll be mighty tempted to go all-in on the Cardinals if they manage to pull off a winning series against the current best team in baseball.