Game Preview 5/20: Cards vs. Tigers

The Cardinals face off against the best of the best in Tarik Skubal.

Funny how one day can change your mind about a series. My mindset going into this series was simple: don’t get swept. It’s not that I have a particularly high opinion of the Tigers, it’s that the Cardinals had a very winnable game one (as we saw), a not very winnable game two, and I was not real hopeful about game three either. I don’t like when game one is by far the most winnable game of the series, because if you lose that game, it feels like you’re getting swept.

Well that concern is out the window, and after I wrote the series preview, we learned Jack Flaherty will not be pitching tomorrow. Suddenly, the Cardinals are facing the team with the best record in baseball, and the Skubal game feels like playing with house money. I want to win today’s game, but it doesn’t feel as essential as it could have felt with a now winnable game three also on the table. (It was always winnable: I was pretty sure Jack was going to dominate though).

But yeah this game, Cardinals are going to defy the odds to win this one. Erick Fedde, you’re going to have to pitch better than you’ve pitched in all but one start this season. The 1:1 K/BB ratio and not really missing any bats probably won’t fly tonight. The Tigers are more likely to punish you if that’s how you pitch. You likely don’t have a lot of margin for error in the first place with Skubal pitching.

Contrary to maybe most fans, I actually kind of like games like this. At least in theory. There’s just zero expectation to win, and it’s kind of freeing in that respect. You take a 50/50 game and if you lose, you’ll be disappointed. This game though? How could you possibly be disappointed if they lose this game? This game is all upside. My baseline expectation is Cardinals lose easily. If they somehow win, it will feel so much better than your typical regular season win. And then they’d have a chance to sweep, when my fear was the opposite.

How to watch: FanDuel Sports Midwest

How to listen: 1120 AM KMOX/ 104.1 FM

First pitch: 1:10 PM

Todays matchup:

Erick Fedde (3.44 ERA/4.12 FIP/5.15 xFIP)

vs.

Tarik Skubal (2.67 ERA/2.12 FIP/2.21 xFIP)

Players to Watch

STL: Erick Fedde: I mean it’s Fedde, absolutely. The Cardinals can scrape together a few runs – in theory – against Skubal and the Tigers bullpen. But it’s all for naught if Fedde doesn’t bring his A game. If Fedde can match Skubal – in terms of earned runs at least – I like our chances. If Fedde isn’t very good, well, I don’t think there’s a ton of hope.

DET: Jake Rogers: Honestly, he’s just here because this is his first game off the injured list. I am alerting you to the fact that a catcher mostly known for his defense is going to be playing tonight. While he had a bad offensive year last year, he did hit 21 homers in just 365 PAs in 2023. He’s a player I hope Fedde strikes out.