This time we cover a safer demographic that still isn’t necessarily safe.
In my high school previews – 1st round edition – which I’ll call it if I get to rounds beyond the 1st round, there was quite a bit of pushback against drafting a high school… anything really. I do think there is a very distinct difference between being able to draft a top 5 talent who was in high school and the vast majority of high school 1st rounders, fully realizing there is still an unfortunate failure rate among top 5 high school picks. Also I feel like if they do draft a high schooler, it’s somebody who was supposed to go higher. So I am way less opposed to drafting someone coming out of high school because I do have a certain amount of faith in Randy Flores and the drafting team.
Nonetheless, the safest option is probably a college pitcher. Well if we want to get technical, a college bat is actually safer. But the Cardinals could certainly use a fast rising college pitcher more than they can use a fast rising college bat. And while I am firmly a “ignore need” guy, I’d be lying if I didn’t say the fact that the seemingly plausible college bats all appear to be infielders, and the Cardinals really don’t need a fast rising infielder. But I’m getting ahead of myself. I’ll cover them next week.
Jaime Arnold, LHP
Ranks: ESPN (#1), Keith Law (#3), MLB Pipeline (#4), BA (#5)
BA Scouting: Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 55.
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55
BigJawnMize, who I was was writing this instead of me, does not love Arnold as a pick for a fairly straightforward reason: his delivery. He has a weird arm slot, like Cooper Hjerpe, and it’s hard to make adjustments and teach a player who has a weird arm slot. Simple as that. Hjerpe has posted some crazy strikeout numbers and it’s not like he’s a lost cause, but he’s barely pitched and my prediction that he’ll never start an MLB game looks like as strong of a prediction as it ever has.
So you might be wondering why the hell he’s a consensus top 5 pick? Well, he has a widely agreed upon arsenal of three above average pitches with strong command. He can post crazy strikeout numbers – no surprise there – and seems to have less injury concerns than Hjerpe did. Might be unfair to directly compare him to Hjerpe – he does seem like a better prospect in every way – but we already have a pitcher like him and it hasn’t worked out so far. Not that I expect him to drop to the Cardinals.
Law: “ It’s a surprisingly easy delivery for its type; a lot of guys coming from down there with this velocity have high-effort or otherwise troublesome deliveries, but other than some cutoff in his landing Arnold’s is about as easy as it gets.”
ESPN: “Arnold has three above-average to plus pitches from a low arm slot in his fastball, sweeper and newly improved changeup. He’s added a shorter cutter-like breaking ball and has two shapes to his fastball, filling out his arsenal.”
MLB: “While his slider can be a little wide at times, the 82-85 mph sweeping breaking ball is a second plus offering that elicited a 41-percent miss rate in 2024. His changeup is his third pitch, and he doesn’t need it much, but there’s some feel for it.”
BA: “ His fastball has been up to 97 mph with upwards of 21 inches of run, and it explodes from a lower release height. In addition to his thunderous heater, Arnold’s slider is a bonafide plus pitch with plenty of sweep and sharpness that is a knockout pitch vs. both lefties and righties.”
Kade Anderson, LHP
Ranks: ESPN (#7), Keith Law (#3), MLB Pipeline (#3), BA (#6)
BA Scouting: Fastball: 55. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55
This is not meant as an insult, but Anderson appears to be the “boring” pick. I will say I don’t think Baseball America’s scouting is quite up-to-date, only because the other three sites appear to think he has four average or better pitches. Which is interesting because he doesn’t exactly rank low by BA. The scouting does not match the ranking at all.
But yeah he’s polished and expected to make it to the big leagues fairly quickly. Usually that comes with a sacrifice of upside and I’m not quite sure if that’s true here, but if it is, it mostly just means “he probably won’t be a true ace.” But if he can be a mid-rotation starter in 2027, you take the relatively sure thing.
ESPN: “Anderson has a much smoother, true starter look with four above-average pitches and above-average command.”
MLB: “With a quick arm and athletic delivery, Anderson provides plenty of strikes. There’s still projection remaining in his slender 6-foot-2 frame, and his uptick in stuff this spring could make him a No. 2 starter. He also comes with a high floor as a lefty with four effective offerings and pitchability.”
Law: “He’s 91-95, using four- and two-seamers, and leads with a plus changeup that has excellent deception and hard fading action, helping him get hitters on both sides of the plate. His slider is the better breaking pitch of his two, as the curveball looks pretty but doesn’t generate as many whiffs and may be more of a show-me offering to keep hitters guessing.”
Liam Doyle, LHP
Ranks: ESPN (#6), Keith Law (#2), MLB Pipeline (#9), BA (#8)
BA Scouting: Fastball: 70. Slider: 50. Changeup: 45. Cutter: 55. Control: 50.
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 55 | Cutter: 55 | Splitter: 55 | Control: 50
Pretty interesting range of opinions here. I will note that, despite the fact that three of the four sites have him falling behind the Cardinals, BigJawnMize doesn’t think there’s any shot Doyle falls to the Cardinals. Worth pointing out I think.
Doyle has been to three schools in three years, and saw his fastball jump from 91-94 and now is more consistently in the mid-90s and peaking at 99. He is another left-handed reliever with an unorthodox delivery, and in addition to that, his track record is shorter than the group he’s lumped in. So in theory, there’s a chance he falls. But I again refer you to BJM who says, and I quote “Not going to be there.”
Law: “The only knocks on Doyle seem to be the lack of track record prior to this year and the fact that the delivery is unorthodox, although he repeats the heck out of it and I don’t see a big red flag beyond the fact that he throws really hard. If his command and control holds up against better competition, he could be a No. 2 starter, and I wouldn’t hesitate to start him at least in Double A.”
ESPN: “Doyle offers power stuff and intensity on the mound with some relief risk because of how he does it. Doyle’s pitch data and improvement have some teams thinking he could be a big league starter in short order, with a backup plan of impact reliever.”
MLB: “It has been the most untouchable heater in college baseball this year, coming out of a high release point and exploding at the top of the zone. His 82-85 mph slider has become a solid offering but he leaves it in the middle of the plate too often, which is also an issue with his upper-80s cutter.”
Kyson Witherspoon, RHP
Ranks: ESPN (#10), Keith Law (#10), MLB Pipeline (#8), BA (#7)
BA Scouting: Fastball: 60. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Cutter: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50
We can probably ignore Witherspoon. Not because nobody has him as high as #5, but because he’s right-handed. The Cardinals are not choosing a right-handed pitcher. (Sorry Seth). I got to say though, as someone who writes up prospect profiles when the readers vote on them, it’s nice to see there’s a chance the Cardinals draft a guy where I won’t have to say “below average fastball.”
Anyway, clearly his fastball is his best pitch. His weakness, from the sources I have looked at, seems to clearly be that there are concerns about his command. That is a little troubling for a 5th overall pick. Here is the BJM report in the comments of a previous preview: “Pass. I feel like I read him pretty well, like his release points are off or something.”
BA: “The 6-foot-2 righty boasts a thunderous mid-90s fastball that reaches 99 mph at peak and has ample life through the zone. He backs the fastball with a tight, mid-to-high-80s slider that routinely flashes plus and a fast-developing changeup that generated a 47% whiff rate with Oklahoma in 2024.”
ESPN: “He has pared down his arsenal of late to a four-seamer, cutter and curveball. There are still some questions about his command and if he has a true second plus pitch behind his heater, but on some days both of those concerns seem misguided.”
MLB: “Witherspoon uses a compact arm action to generate quality stuff with little effort. His athleticism and mechanics have translated into improved control and command this spring, and better location has made it easier for him to get hitters to chase outside of the strike zone. He has all of the ingredients to become a frontline starter.”
Law: “Witherspoon will hold 95-97 deep into games, topping out at 99, with a five-pitch mix that includes a slider and cutter that run into each other, along with a 55 changeup that he needs to use more often.”
You know this time, I’m going to stick to four names. There are primarily two reasons for this. The first is that there is absolutely no agreement on the rest of the names.
Tyler Bremner, RHP
Ranks: ESPN (#28), Keith Law (#29), MLB Pipeline (#14), BA (#14)
BA Scouting: Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 65. Control: 60.
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 65 | Control: 55
Bremner is quite literally the only other pitcher who is ranked in the top 30 by all four prospect sites I’m visiting. I am going to cover one other name, but there is wild disagreement over the other guys. And it says something I think that I am not describing a difference of 14 and 29 as “wild disagreement.”
Another unfortunate situation where I’m giving you the scouting grades of the two sites that are high on him. Good for Bremner I suppose, but if there’s disagreement, I’d prefer if MLB Pipeline and BA disagree. Bremner has durability concerns – what pitcher doesn’t – and didn’t take quite the step forward some evaluators hoped for. Doesn’t seem like there’s much chance the Cards get this guy, at #5 or down at 55.
BA: “ In 2024, Bremner’s changeup generated an impressive 46% miss rate. He has advanced feel for the offering and will throw it to both left and righthanded hitters. The change plays well off his mid-90s fastball and flashes late tumbling life. Bremner’s slider features ample late sweeping life, as well as some depth, and is a real weapon against righthanded hitters.”
MLB: “One of his bigger issues this spring has been that his 86-88 mph slider with gyro-type shape has backed up — he’s struggled to throw it for strikes — and he’s been more of a two-pitch pitcher.”
Law: “He has a plus changeup that might be a 70 and he gets good spin rates on the slider, but his fastball can be flat and the slider plays down because of how he cuts himself off in his delivery.”
Riley Quick, RHP
Ranks: ESPN (#46), Keith Law (#14), MLB Pipeline (#35), BA (#19)
BA Scouting: Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45
Now this is what I call disagreement. We have our final pitcher in the top 20 of at least two sites in Quick, but there’s quite the wide range of grades on this one. It’s easy to see why. Quick had Tommy John surgery after one start in 2024. Law says he came back this year like nothing ever happened. Nonetheless, there’s reliever risk here even independent of his injury concerns. It says something that Law, who is the highest on him as anyone, finishes his report in a way that I would be very hesitant to draft him.
MLB: “Though Quick’s fastball and slider grade as plus-plus at their best and he can back them up with a quality changeup, he doesn’t miss nearly as many bats as his pure stuff indicates he should. His pitches move so much that they can be difficult to harness, leaving him with decent control but spotty command”
BA: “Quick has power stuff from his right hand including a mid-90s fastball that has touched 98 with bowling ball life that has helped him drive a 61% groundball rate in his first 25 college innings. He also throws a mid-80s slider that some scouts think can become plus and a mid-80s changeup that has average potential.”
Law: “His arm is often late, which may be contributing to the issues with the slider, and he comes back across his body with some head-snap at release. It all points to some reliever risk even before you consider the injury, but he’s also someone who has such a great foundation of arm strength, ability to spin the ball, and a present offspeed weapon in the changeup that he could be a No. 2 starter or better with some mechanical fine-tuning.”
And that’s all for today folks. There are zero other college pitchers ranked in the top 30 by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Given how high Law ranked Quick and the fact that he was somewhat backed up by Baseball America, I felt compelled to put him on this list. I did not feel compelled to share thoughts on Zach Root, who is top 20 by Law but nowhere near there for the other three sites. And ESPN is very high on Gage Wood, but he’s alone in having him as high as 21. So good place to stop.