What good does lamenting one run losses do?
I, like many Cardinals fans, have been down on the team lately. We are perhaps lamenting the hitting, or the pitching, or some blame everything on the management. Oliver Marmol must be fired ASAP according to countless social media comments. John Mozeliak is ruining everything. Etc. I was blaming things on one run losses, but I had a cognitive distortion called recency bias…
Four of the last 8 Cardinals games prior to their relentless 12-2 win over the White Sox were indeed one run losses. The Cardinals lost to the Brewers 3-2 on June 13 and 15. They lost 10-9 on June 10, and they lost 5-4 the day prior, vs the Blue Jays. Not only have the Cardinals been losing a lot of one run games lately, they have lost 7 of 9 games dating back to June 8th, the last game vs the Dodgers where they lost 7-3.
So after a lot of positive vibes we have been losing a lot! But it felt like it also could’ve easily been a series win vs both the Blue Jays and the Brewers, which is just really frustrating. Because if you believe in this team, you think they could have just as easily won most of those 1 run games.
Recency bias has convinced me the Cardinals suck in 1 run games. But is that true in 2025? Not really. The Cardinals are 14-10 in one run games in 2025!
Let’s take a look at where the Cardinals stand after 73 games.
- the Cardinals run differential is just behind the Brewers… both top 15 in run differential
- Cardinals and Brewers are both projected to finish just above .500
- Cardinals are top 10 in positional fWAR
- Cardinals offense has fallen off some but they are still an above average hitting team with a high batting average
- FIP still likes Cardinals pitching and it is still a top 10 force by fWAR
- tied with the Reds who are also a good team, 7 games behind the Cubs, 1⁄2 a game behind the Brewers
- Cardinals are 1.5 games out in the wild card standings… losing 7 out of 10, they remain a part of the playoff picture just out of where the Phillies, Giants, and Padres are now; it’s a long season and not even halfway over yet
So if you’re feeling a little down on the team still even after today’s win vs the White Sox, who admittedly are not really a team you can brag about beating, I think there’s still some reason for hope. There isn’t really any cutoff point for determining that the team is out of it, other than being statistically eliminated for this franchise. As of the time of this writing, the Cardinals have just over a 1 in 4 shot at the playoffs. I think I can remember when they’ve had it worse.
Unsung Heroes
Steven Matz and Phil Maton anchor the bullpen, at least going by fWAR. As much as I advocate for moving Matz to the rotation, it does seem that the bullpen actually needs more help than the rotation this year. Leave him in the bullpen for now. Phil Maton has been a key offseason move, even though he was really the only real signing, it certainly has worked out. Phil Maton: 2.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP.
Nolan Gorman has quietly battled his way to hitting about as well as Masyn Winn has this season. And that’s not bad! His OBP is now over .320. I will go ahead and list Winn as an unsung hero too, since much of the fanbase still doesn’t know how good he is. His value is derived from excellent defense as an everyday MLB shortstop. But he remains an average to slightly above average hitter, which is pretty much NOT a sophomore slump. Winn is already on pace to surpass his excellent rookie season despite missing a little playing time due to an injury. Last year he was worth 3.6 fWAR, and in 2025 I will be surprised if he’s not worth around 4. He will probably have less home runs this year but a higher OBP, which is just fine.
Alec Burleson has increased his season OBP to .340! The Burly experience may just work out somehow. He may not have much power but if he can get on base and get a lot of hits… a 122 wRC+ is pretty good! He was 3-5 with a home run and a couple RBI vs the White Sox.
Possible All-Stars
Brendan Donovan comes to mind, especially after the White Sox win. 4 for 5 with 2 runs scored, making his wRC+ 139 in 2025. He will probably make the squad of All-Stars, but I don’t think he can catch up to Ketel Marte’s season and probably All Star berth. Still, he has made this season a lot more fun.
Ivan Herrera is rocking a 160 wRC+ still in 2025. He has been relentless. I think he deserves to make the NL squad, if only for an extra hitter that can really hit. His OBP is .389!
All-Star VEB’rs
I would like to nominate gamethread sensation PugetSoundCardsAddict:
The Redbirds have scored 10, now 11, runs tonight. It’s the seventh time this season the Cardinals have achieved double digit runs. That matches the total of the entire 2024 season of double digit runs scored games.
I was looking for a post from PugetSCA regarding Cardinals stealing home plate. It isn’t very easy to look up. From what I can quickly gather at this late hour, it seems that the last Cardinals player to steal home base, prior to Willson Contreras, was none other than Brendan Donovan in 2023! Lou Brock was also known to steal home plate. VEB, what other Cardinals players have stolen home plate?
- In a 1982 game against the Giants, with the score tied in the 12th inning, Brummer, a third-string catcher, stole home, securing a win for the Cardinals. This play is particularly memorable because it happened with two strikes on the batter and was not a planned event, according to Cardinals manager Whitey Herzog.
Glen Brummer stealing home plate is the 21st century equivalent of Yohel Pozo stealing home on instinct alone and winning the game in extra innings!
Willson Contreras stealing home plate tonight is just an absolute classic Cardinals moment.
Ok, it’s late, and I must stop writing tonight. As always, thanks for reading, thanks for humoring me, and thank you mostly for being a Cardinals fan! Let’s discuss being fans of a good team. Or if you need to vent, consider today an open thread! You guys are the best.