With a rare top-five pick and $14.5 million in bonus pool flexibility, St. Louis enters the 2025 MLB Draft at a pivotal moment.
It’s the day of the MLB Draft, and I must admit — I’m quite excited. The St. Louis Cardinals, as you might have heard, are picking fifth overall thanks to a bit of lottery luck. It’s a rare opportunity for the franchise: they’ve only selected within the top five three times in their entire history. We are, quite literally, witnessing history.
Of course, I’m also eager to see what the team does with this pick. We’ve covered the possibilities in recent posts, and the mock drafts have been all over the place. In this latest round, one name keeps surfacing: Eli Willits, a switch-hitting shortstop from Oklahoma with elite contact skills, defensive polish, and a baseball pedigree that includes six state titles and a stint with Team USA. He’s also the youngest player in the draft class — still just 17 — and has drawn comparisons to Anthony Volpe for his maturity and instincts.
Other names in the mix include Jamie Arnold, a strikeout-heavy lefty from Florida State; Liam Doyle, a high-upside arm from Tennessee; and Ike Irish, a power-hitting catcher/outfielder from Auburn. The Cardinals could go in any direction — prep bat, college arm, or even a surprise pick that shakes up the board. And picking at fifth gives them a ton of options to do that!
Unlike in some other major sports, MLB draft picks rarely make an immediate impact. It’s entirely possible this player never plays a game in St. Louis. A top-five selection shifts the odds, but the long developmental runway remains. Still, with the Cardinals in a transitional phase — rebuilding their farm system, reevaluating roster construction — this pick feels like it’s arriving at the perfect moment. It’s a chance to start shaping the next core.
While the strategy for the draft, largely due to that long developmental runway, is to take the best player available — with bonus pool maneuvering playing a huge role, especially at a slot this high (more on that in a bit) — it’s hard not to see this pick as narratively thematic. The Cardinals stand at a crossroads: past the peak of the previous core, with a farm system in need of revitalization and a fanbase hungry for vision.
The Cardinals’ bonus pool for this year sits at $14,238,300 million, thanks to the No. 5 slot value of $8,134,800 million and a generous spread across their remaining picks. That gives them flexibility: they can take a high-upside prep player early and float an overslot offer to an undervalued name later. Or they could zig the other way — take a signable college player at No. 5 and redistribute funds down the board.
That’s why draft strategy isn’t just about preferences; it’s about math, leverage, and long-range vision. And for the Cardinals, tonight’s decisions could define the tone of this next era — blending upside with organizational fit, risk tolerance with developmental projection.
Who they choose at No. 5 won’t just shape their prospect pipeline — it will signal something about how this front office views identity, risk, and rebirth. Are they betting on upside? Reliability? Leadership? Will they lean toward legacy or try to write a new arc entirely? Whatever direction they take, tonight feels like more than just a pick. It feels like the beginning of a new chapter.
Whether it’s a player we are expecting or a curveball we haven’t considered, tonight marks the opening move in a crucial campaign. I am so excited to see what they do with this opportunity.
We will be covering the draft all day as it unfolds, so please hang around with us if you want to follow along!
Happy Sunday!