Save yourself and don’t look at Armstrong’s ERA.
The trade deadline has come and gone and the Cardinals were active right up until the final buzzer.
Rumors have circulated for several days about a potential trade of Dylan Carlson. The Cardinals wanted to clear roster space for the newly acquired Tommy Pham and also find bullpen help.
They (theoretically) did both by moving Carlson to the Rays (where he seems destined to become an impact player) for struggling right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong.
Shawn Armstrong coming to #stlcards from Rays to complete the deal mentioned below.
Tommy Pham will be added to roster, imminently. https://t.co/AkSq9baSAe
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) July 30, 2024
Don’t look at Armstrong’s ERA.
Or his 2024 Baseball Savant page.
But maybe do look at his 2023 data.
I’ll have more analysis shortly. Stay tuned!
Carlson has had a miserable season for the Cardinals, batting just .198/.275/.240 with a 52 wRC+. His defense has also slipped, with negative OAA’s in both RF and CF.
His poor performance traces back to a late Spring injury when he collided with Jordan Walker. The resulting shoulder injury landed Carlson in the IL through the month of April and he was just never the same player.
Carlson’s average exit velocity has fallen from its high of 89.3 last season to just 85.7. His max exit velocity and hard hit% have tanked as well. That has corresponded with a dramatic rise in his K% and a drop in his BB%.
There just isn’t anything about Carlson’s season that is going well.
With options remaining, the Cardinals could have sent Carlson to AAA to get himself right. They could have held on to his rights and hope that a full offseason would allow him to recover strength in his shoulder and give him one more chance in 2025.
In the end, though, they decided that a change of scenery was preferable and gave up the former top prospect in the Cardinals’ system for bullpen depth. The Rays, meanwhile, gain over two seasons of control to try to turn Carlson around.
No one should be surprised if that happens.
Shawn Armstrong, meanwhile, is a project of his own. The Cardinals just don’t get the same amount of time to unlock his former potential.
In 2023, Armstrong posted a 1.38 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. He was a very effective reliever, with a K rate over 26% and a BB rate under just over 5.
This season, now age 33, he’s experienced a dip in fastball velocity and effectiveness.
I’m serious when I say “ignore his ERA.” There’s nearly a 2.00 difference in his ERA (5.40) and his FIP (3.76). The Cardinals are leaning into the latter.
More concerning than his ERA is Armstrong’s Statcast rates. He went from being one of the most effective relief arms in the game last season to one of the worst.
That’s all the Cardinals were able to get for Dylan Carlson.
It’s depressing. It just is. It’s nearly a worst-case outcome for a player that the Cardinals staked a lot of hope on and time into.
I’ll have more on Carlson this weekend.
Stay tuned for more updates, Tweets and info from the VEB writers and the greater Cardinals community. We’ll update this article periodically tonight.