Soon enough, if it hasn’t started by the time you read this, individual transactions for teams should have started up, perhaps even skyrocketed. I started writing this the day after the World Series ended, and I see even that first day that a few transactions have occurred. No time to like now to get started! I will try to keep up with Cardinal transactions as they occur, before this article posts.
As the Cardinals get involved in those transactions, the focus of discussion will inevitably narrow to the characteristics and potential of the player(s) involved, so very detailed. I wanted to take advantage of this interlude to take a high-level look at the pipeline, without getting into the merits of any individual player. The way I’m going to do this is to bucket players into various position groups and into various timeline brackets. The focus will be on the position groups and time brackets, not so much in trying to differentiate potential among individual prospects. My intent is to get a high level look at where the overall system (and roster) is stronger and where it is weaker, both now and into the future. Likewise, I didn’t spend copious amounts of time on the current iteration of the MLB roster. We know the weaknesses (and strengths). But which ones have solutions coming?
I had a little bit of a methodology here, which I will describe, and then talk through the groupings I formed up.
First, I separated players into position and pitching groups. I subdivided the MLB roster into position players, bench, starters and bullpen. I sub-divided MiLB players into just position players and pitcher. For the most part, only regulars in MiLB progress to MLB and almost all MLB pitchers come from the starter group. There are exceptions (Gastelum, for one), but few enough where a separate group doesn’t seem necessary.
Then I added in some timeline elements that hopefully mostly self-explanatory. I did try and avoid specific time forecasts, but one could look at each column and roughly estimate a season where a player in that column might begin to impact the MLB roster. Timing is so inexact, I took a different route in labelling the columns. They are as follows,
- MLB – these are the players that by and large finished the season on the active 26-man roster (with some expected pruning yet to be announced).
- MLB ready – these are the players that are not on the MLB active roster but have a realistic potential for doing so as soon as Opening Day and will more than likely see MLB time in 2027. To try and be consistent, my first screen for this was a player has to be on the 40-man roster and not on the 26-man, with one exception (Cijntje). The player has to be at AAA as well. Let’s face it, the Cardinals don’t call up players from AA, and don’t view AA players as MLB ready. Not every org thinks this of every player, but it is a good screen to apply here.
- Near-ready – these are the players that appear near MLB readiness, but realistically won’t make the Opening Day roster because they have more boxes to check at AAA. Right now, the main composition of this group are the many players likely to move up to AAA from AA that are not on the 40-man roster.
- Distant – this next group of players are guys who are identifiable as potential impact players, but are not near-ready. As you might suspect, these would be the guys expected to open at High-A or make it up to AA next season. This group has no chance of joining the MLB roster in 2027 and we can hope that they are at least near-ready by 2028. Some are further away, but their star burns bright enough to see.
- I also had a Hospital ward – this group of players are the ones that would be in one of the upper groups if not for injury. I removed this grouping to reduce the size of the graphic. So as not to forget players like Henderson or Dobbins, who may (or may not) re-enter this pipeline at some future date.
I included only upper-tier prospects in the groups. Players not ranked on a prospect list or players below 40 FV on Fangraphs didn’t get grouped. There will certainly be an MLB-caliber player in there, but not many and likely not super impactful, and not enough to really change the overall picture. Some will want to argue this. But, but, what about Ortiz? He looks like a hitter and could fit in the 1B/DH group! Well, Deniel Ortiz has finally made it onto someone’s prospect list (BA has him at 27), but he carries a 35 FV. The potential of this one player impacting the major league roster is quite low. This isn’t a projection on Ortiz himself. I don’t know enough him individually. But right now, he doesn’t appear to make that group of incoming players materially stronger in a way that can be counted on. I left guys like this off. From 30,000 feet, we can’t see them until their star burns brighter. It may.
So, I plunked each chosen player into a position group and a timeline and came up with this distribution:
The groupings allow me to look at the system at a higher level without getting into frenzied debates about whether player X has more potential than player Y or what position the player should end up in. Here, we will look at the depth of the group, not the individual components so much.
I embellished the original groupings a bit, adding arrows to show the general flow of talent through the pipeline, which is roughly right-to-left. Once in MLB, bench players usually come from the stock of position players who can’t quite make the everyday circuit. Think about it. How often do teams promote from MiLB to the bench to improve the talent level of the team?
I added some color. MLB roster players are red if I view this as a roster spot that really just needs an upgrade. Yellow colored names are guys we don’t quite yet know what they are. These are the runway guys. On the non-MLB side, I color coded the groups based on perceived strength (and quantity). I also added prospect counts in each group, to keep the focus on the group, not the individuals.
Notice the position player side of the pipeline. It narrows from right to left. I’d kind of generally expect this. 10 Low-A prospects might be 4 by the time they get 2-3 years down the road. Peculiarly, the pitching pipeline has a more uniform shape, with pitching prospects pretty equally distributed. Just at a high level, I’d think this side of the pipeline is healthier because of that.
Some things that jump out immediately:
- Notice the shortage of MLB-ready position players. I colored coded this grouping red, indicating this is (at a high level) probably the biggest area of deficit in the Cardinals system. If the MLB roster had no immediate needs, this wouldn’t be a huge problem, but the MLB roster has obvious deficits (3b, CF) and some potential deficits if the more unknowns struggle (Baez, Bernal). Jimmy Crooks isn’t going to fill all of these deficits (or perhaps any of them). With the known problems and the potential for injury or under-performance lurking, this gap is … concerning.
- Worsening this look is the Near Ready group has but 4 players. An unusual amount of good fortune will have to pass over this group if they, as a group, are going to impact the MLB roster positively at some future date. The math tells us the likelihood is more like that only 1 or 2 will ascend in an impactful way.
- When you look at the position players in the Distant comets group, the group itself starts to look stronger and more foundationally sound. We do have to remember that the attrition rate in this group is higher, though. And a ways away.
- On the pitching side, the Cardinals come in with a solid if unspectacular rotation and a very weak bullpen. When you look at the MLB-ready pitching group, you see another 8 names (assuming Fitts is healthy). This group is colored code green as more of a strength.
- We can see 5 more names in the Near Ready pitcher group. Not all of these guys will contribute in 2027, but it sure looks like the Cardinals could go ten deep in starters without going outside the organization. While I can see where they might want to bring in a veteran from the outside, this looks like a deep group.
- As you look at the reliever group, the MLB talent level leaves a bit to be desired. Over time, it is pretty easy to imagine that a number of the MLB ready or Near Ready starters will either 1) push an existing starter to the bullpen or 2) end up a reliever themselves. When one thinks about the average MLB team in the average season rolls out 30 arms on MLB mounds, 12 (MLB) + 8 (MLB ready and near ready) doesn’t seem like quite enough quantity. While there is strength in the depth of the MLB Ready and Near Ready pitchers, there probably isn’t the numbers needed to both improve the rotation and improve the bullpen, unless everyone remains healthy and everyone progresses. Even with guys this close, I would call that unlikely. Some of this math probably helps inform the acquisition of Lopez and potentially others to come.
The challenge
If the MLB-ready position group is the biggest challenge, even more perplexing is how to fix it. Waiting doesn’t seem like a grand strategy. Inaction usually isn’t. Money to fill the MLB positional gaps with free agents would alleviate pressure on the AAA team, but non-performance or injury could strike at any time and expose this gap even with heavy spending.
As discussed widely, there are some potential redundancies at starting pitcher and catcher that could be dealt to fill some of these holes with trades. The match-ups don’t seem that great in the market, but it only takes one.
The longer-term option would be to take the MLB players closest to free agency (Burleson, Pallante) and deal them to acquire near-ready MLB talent. This would be unpopular with the fanbase, who are growing restive and perhaps a bit tired of the perceived slow pace of the rebuild. Plus, acquiring near-MLB ready talent is no guarantee they become impactful, which would submarine the whole affair. High risk, for sure. Even with the keen talent evaluation skills of this management group.
This bifurcated off-season should be fascinating to watch unfold.