Payroll. Now with fewer spreadsheets!
Good morning, Viva El Birdos!
It’s time once again to enter that time-honored, beloved off-season holiday. Hang up the spreadsheets. Deck the halls with calculators. Stuff that turkey with just the right amount of estimated player benefits. Fill your fireplace with projected arbitration salaries. It’s payroll season!
Almost. We’re a little early. As mentioned last week, my fall schedule is going to force me to get offseason content to you before the offseason begins. It is what it is. But it does represent a challenge when it comes to the quasi-math of MLB payroll estimations. Since we’re doing this before the season ends, we’re a little more limited than normal in the information that’s available to us. Both in terms of payroll and in terms of the Cardinals’ plans to spend their payroll.
That’s ok. It won’t end up mattering that much for our purpose today. During most offseasons, I’ll present my decked-out payroll spreadsheets, with vetted numbers for guaranteed contracts and arbitration salary projections. I wrap it all up with a bow of my own projected budget totals for the offseason. We, then, have a tested offseason reference to use as we play armchair GM.
The posting date of this article won’t let me do what I usually do. The information is not solid enough; the offseason plan is not clear enough. Since people borrow my payroll images and use my calculations and projections all the time on social media and regular media outlets, I have to be responsible with what I publish.
All I intend to do today is give you a primer on the Cardinals’ payroll this offseason. Get the money ball rolling a little; help you all see where the Cardinals stand from a high and low payroll perspective as they enter an offseason where the only certainty is change. This info, while not providing certainty in terms of spending or budget, will help you all as you start to discuss what direction the Cardinals plan to take this offseason.
What direction will that be? Good question.
* Will they make significant changes in their roster, aggressively raising payroll to secure a return to contention in the NL Central?
* Will declining ticket sales and the unknown of their TV contract with Bally force the team to hold payroll static or even cut spending?
* Do two consecutive seasons of underperformance signal it’s time for a rebuild that ignores payroll entirely?
The answers to these questions are likely coming soon as the Cardinals begin their offseason plans and press conferences. Until we get them, I think it’s useful to know where the Cardinals stand in terms of projected spending – not looking toward Opening Day, but a min and a max that they could be as they enter the offseason. We’ll look at guaranteed contracts, make some arbitration guesses, and fill things out with a range of pre-arbitration salary numbers.
Guaranteed Contracts
One of the things you’ll notice if you look at the Cardinals’ roster is that they don’t have a lot of players under guaranteed contracts. It’s rather startling, actually, to see just how few players the team has under contract control and how short those contracts last.
Oddly, despite not having many players under guaranteed contracts, they also don’t have a ton of roster wiggle room. Departing free agents, like Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter, would usually create space for payroll and roster flexibility. This year, however, the team already has potential replacements lined up internally and the salary space gained from some of the exits of those players is already tied up in intentionally-timed raises to players already under contract.
Here are the players the Cardinals have under guaranteed contract control as they enter the offseason:
Arenado – $32M
Gray – $25M
Contreras – $18M
Mikolas – $17.7M
Matz – $12M
Fedde -$7.5M
Gibson – $12M team option ($1M buyout)
Lynn – $12M team option ($1M buyout)
Middleton – $6M team option ($1m buyout)
Total of guaranteed contracts:
Maximum guaranteed contracts (all team option players return): $142.2M
Minimum guaranteed contracts (all team option players exit): $115.2M
Notice that I am presenting this in terms of a maximum and a minimum. The reason? The team negotiated options into the contracts for Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and reliever Keynan Middleton. The Cardinals are only on-the-hook for $1M for each player for 2025. They could let all three walk at that minimum level of expense. If they brought all three back, they would account for a total of $30M.
Those team options create a $27M difference between the Cardinals’ min and max guaranteed salaries as they enter the offseason. That’s a notable number. A team can do a lot with $27M.
The Cardinals currently have six starting pitchers under contract for next season. Gray gets a huge raise over his first year. Mikolas and Matz are sunk costs for the club. Fedde will enter the offseason as the team’s presumptive #2 starter with a very reasonable $7.5M deal. Gibson and Lynn round out the under-control rotation. This doesn’t count arbitration-eligible arms like Andre Pallante or pre-arbs like Matthew Liberatore.
It seems unlikely that the club will bring back all 6 starters. We’ve already gotten plenty of smoke around Lance Lynn’s departure.
Since we’re going to the trouble of putting these numbers out there, let’s go ahead and offer what I’ll call a “most likely” scenario that the Cardinals could follow as they enter their offseason. This would help us find space between the minimum and maximum payroll options that the Cardinals are more likely to pursue.
How do these team options play in terms of a “most likely” approach? Let’s subtract Lynn’s $12M team option, and add in his $1M buyout. What about Gibson? I don’t think the Cardinals let both Gibson and Lynn walk, even with Pallante present. Pallante’s presence gives them 6 viable starters, which teams always need, and would give them the option to trade the increasingly unreliable Steven Matz or, equally likely, relocate him to the bullpen. Let’s assume the Cards pick up his team option.
What about Middleton? I think that they’ll let him go. I also think that they are likely to bring someone back at about the price that Middleton will cost. Kittredge, for example. That likelihood makes me want to pencil Middleton’s team option amount into our scenario and simply replace the name later if they go a different route. The cost should be something close to a wash.
If we take that as our “most likely” scenario, we end up with guaranteed contracts totaling $131.2M entering the offseason.
If that sounds like a lot committed to not many players of quality impact, it is. This is one of the reasons the Cardinals haven’t won much in the last two seasons. They have too much money invested into a small number of players who just aren’t very good. If you’re looking for reasons why Mozeliak should not return as President of Baseball Operations, there’s a big one.
Arbitration Eligibles
While guaranteed contracts form the largest share of the Cardinals’ offseason payroll, they also have a significant list of arbitration-eligible players to negotiate with this offseason. These are players who have filled vital roles on the roster the last few seasons and have, at times, produced at a relatively high level.
That matters in arbitration hearings, where the contract amount the player earns – either through a negotiated deal or an arbiter’s award – is based largely on a player’s playing time and production.
MLB Trade Rumors does a great job with these projections during the offseason. I always defer to their numbers, plugging them into my spreadsheets. This is a big part of the information that isn’t available to us this early. MLBTR’s numbers aren’t out yet. We’ll have to make our guesses until they are published. To solve this problem, I took a simple approach. I glanced at a few other previous arbitration cases for the Cardinals who had similar production and playing time levels (specifically Tommy Edman in ’23 and ‘24 Dylan Carlson) as the Cardinals’ current arbitration eligibles. Here’s what I came up with (italics indicate estimate):
Ryan Helsley (A3) – $7.5M
Brendan Donovan (A1) – $4.00M
Lars Nootbaar (A1) – $3.5M
Andre Pallante (A1) – $2.75M
Nolan Gorman (A1) – $2.3M
JoJo Romero (A2) – $1.5M
Arbitration Eligible Total Estimate: $21.6M
Please view this at what it is – a quick guess based on a small historical sample. Don’t go to the bank with these numbers. Still, it gives us something to work with. Helsley is going to make some good money this offseason. He’s earned it. I might be way off on his numbers. Arbitration 3 for closers can be tricky. Donovan and Nootbaar, despite just being Arb 1 players, should also be well rewarded for their starters’ roles and consistently good production. I have Donovan coming in just below what Tommy Edman earned entering 2023. I have Nolan Gorman getting exactly what Dylan Carlson got entering 2024. I have Nootbaar, because of his injuries, somewhere in between. Pallante is a blind guess. As an RP, SP, MLB’er, AAA’er… he’s too hard of a case. Update his numbers when MLBTR provides them.
These contracts are significant but because we are largely dealing with less than $8M for each player, even if I am missing the mark in my tentative projections, the result isn’t going to impact our payroll calculations all that much. Put a plus or minus of maybe $3M on that total arbitration estimate number above.
I don’t see the Cardinals non-tendering any of these players. That’s not going to happen. It should not happen. (Though, we said the same thing about Kolten Wong after the COVID season, didn’t we? So, you never really know.)
Back to our “most likely” scenario above. Assume all the arb-eligibles return. We can add $21.6M to the $131.2M we calculated above. In this scenario, the Cardinals would have $152.8M in contracts on the books before we even get to their pre-arbitration players.
That’s surprisingly high. With more to add.
Pre-Arbitration Contracts
Without many guaranteed contracts and only a small handful of arbitration eligibles, the Cardinals are left with a significant number of pre-arbitration players who will make something around the league minimum to add to their payroll.
This section, by the way, is a Venus fly trap for caʒ (casual) fans when they try to do back-of-the-napkin payroll calculations. You can’t just look at the players making the most money or subtract the contracts coming off the books to figure out how much money can come onto the books. That approach will put you off by millions. Pre-arbitration contracts matter. A lot. Even though each contract is small, they add up to a significant expense.
Normally when I do payroll, I add up the number of contracted players with the arbitration eligibles and then subtract that number from 26. That gives me the number of league minimum contracts to add to the payroll math for a full roster. With team option decisions still pending, there are between 12 and 15 guaranteed and arbitration contracts on the books. Subtract those numbers from 26 and we have the number of pre-arbs we have to add to payroll – a max of 14 or a min of 11.
Minimum of 11 players at $760k or higher each: $8.4M+
Maximum of 14 players at $760K or higher each:$10.6M+
In the “most likely” scenario I described, with Lynn exiting but Gibson and some reliever (Middleton or whoever) returning and all the arbitration contracts included, this number becomes $9.2M. This is starting to add up!
The Max and Mins of Cardinals Payroll Entering the Offseason
We’ve got our numbers. We can add our maximum guaranteed contract number together with our arbitration estimate and our minimum pre-arbitration number to give us a maximum Cardinals’ projected payroll entering the offseason. Keep in mind, this number does not include any outside additions at all. It includes only the team options for their under-contract players. I note that because it’s remarkably high.
Maximum Offseason Payroll based on current roster: $169.4M
On the flip side, we have our minimum payroll entering the offseason. This number includes the guaranteed contracts minus all the team option players (no Lynn, Gibson, or Middleton), all the arbitration eligibles, and enough pre-arbitration players to return to a full 26-man roster. It’s also surprisingly high.
Minimum Offseason Payroll based on current roster: $144.6M
In between we have what I’ve been describing as our “most likely” scenario where Gibson returns, and the Cardinals bring back at least one reliever at roughly the same cost as Middleton. That number includes all the arbitration eligibles and 12 pre-arbitration players to finish out the 26-man roster.
“Most Likely” Offseason Payroll based on current roster: $162M
Now, let’s turn to a number that’s just as important as the ones presented above. Remember to compare apples to apples. We are talking about an offseason 26-man roster. Not a 40-man roster. Not a Luxury Tax payroll. We’re not prorating contracts, adding in player benefits, or other costs.
It’s just 26 players worth of simple addition. The comparable comparison is last year’s actual 26-man Opening Day payroll. That number?
2024 Opening Day Payroll: $174.5M
That number looms large. Very large. Why? Because it’s so difficult to envision a scenario where the Cardinals raise payroll for 2025.
They experienced a significant decline in ticket sales this season and an even more massive decline in bodies in the seats. (This goes without saying but bodies in the seats generate more revenue than no-show ticket sales.)
They will enter this offseason facing the unknown of a change in TV contracts. Maybe MLB will create a streaming service. Maybe Bally keeps the rights and the broadcasts. Maybe the Cardinals start their own network. I have no idea what will happen. The Cardinals probably have a better idea than I do, but what they don’t have is a set, contracted, guaranteed payment amount that is the same (or higher) as last year. The Cardinals’ TV situation brings an extremely high level of financial uncertainty into the Cardinals’ revenue and payroll calculus.
As John Mozeliak told me at Blogger Day this year, there’s one “bucket” of revenue that all payroll-related expenses have to come from.
Consider the state of that “bucket” as the team enters the offseason.
* Ticket sales are down = less money in the bucket.
* TV revenue is uncertain = less money is likely to be in the bucket.
* Draft allotment is higher because of higher draft picks = more money coming out of the bucket on non-roster player expenses.
* Other payroll-related expenses will increase (there are built-in benefit expenses that rise on an annual basis) = more money coming out of the bucket without a corresponding increase in production.
This is really simple stuff, folks. Less money in the bucket. More non-player-related expenses coming out of the bucket. That equals less money for the Cardinals to spend on players.
Even when those situations were not present to their current extent, the Cardinals have been tight-fisted with their payroll spending. In ’23 and ’24 their 26-man Opening Day payroll was essentially static. Their CBT/Luxury Tax salary increased because of the way that’s calculated. But actual spending on actual players on the field in those seasons? The same.
Faced with the list of revenue concerns listed above and the Cardinals’ recent payroll history, how could we reasonably project the Cardinals to increase payroll in 2025?
Faced with the list of revenue concerns listed above and the Cardinals’ recent playoff history, how could we reasonably project anything less than a cut in payroll in 2025?
We can demand the Cardinals spend. We can hold them accountable for their conservative fiscal approach. We can argue that the Cardinals make enough money that they can afford to cut into their profits and add better personnel. We can assert that the best way for them to secure the revenue they need is to aggressively improve. Give fans a reason to go to the stadium and subscribe to their TV broadcasts and they will!
Feel free to do all those things. In presenting the reality of the Cardinal’s situation, I am not defending it or excusing it. I’m merely explaining it. This is what I do in these articles.
That brings me back to why that $174.5M 2024 Opening Day payroll matters so much. I fully expect the Cardinals to cut payroll entering the 2025 season. Based on the numbers I am seeing above, I would estimate the Cardinals will cut payroll by $10M this coming season.
2025 Projected Opening Day Payroll: $165M
Notice that the Cardinals’ maximum payroll entering the offseason is already higher than that – $169.4M. Their minimum number is only $20M shy of that total – barely enough to bring Paul Goldschmidt back if he takes a notable pay cut.
My “most likely” scenario of $162M comes in within the $3M margin of error I set for the arbitration-eligible players.
The Cardinals largely have their roster set. They largely have their expenses set. The roster this team takes into the offseason in a few weeks is likely to be very similar in terms of cost and talent to the one that they will bring to camp in February of 2025.
I think the best that we’ll see this offseason is a re-arrangement of the team’s deck chairs through payroll-neutral moves.
I could see the Cardinals clearing salary by:
* Trading Ryan Helsley for salary relief and to fill roster gaps.
* Trading Steven Matz for as much salary relief as they could.
I could also see the Cardinals using that space to…
* Bring Paul Goldschmidt back on a discounted one-year incentive-laden deal.
* Signing or trading for a right-handed center fielder to platoon with Michael Siani or Victor Scott.
Those aren’t the kind of moves that are likely to make a huge difference in the standings in 2025. It’s extremely difficult to add wins to a roster without adding payroll to a roster. Talent costs.
They are also the kind of moves that have me wondering (and writing) “Why bother?” If the Cardinals roster and payroll are already largely set on October 1st, then the club would be better off admitting they are rebuilding and following that path. (As I’ve laid out here.)
I’m curious to find out what approach the Cardinals will take to spending this offseason. We should start to find out pretty soon. The math is laid out for you above. You can return here throughout the offseason to update numbers, adjust to signings and trades, and see where the Cardinals are. I’ll have updates for you as the offseason progresses in some form or fashion.
Happy Wednesday, Viva El Birdos!